VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Feb. 16-18

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With the NBA All-Star weekend, we are college basketball heavy on line moves with a hockey game tossed in. We also take a look at some this weekend’s biggest college hoops contests. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (98-82-3 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week

CBB – (821) GEORGIA STATE at (726) GEORGIA SOUTHERN  9:00 ET  ESPN2

If you are reading this, you are a sports bettor and I would recommend watching at least a portion of this Sun Belt showdown since both teams will be involved in some March tournament. Oddmakers sent the visitor out as a single digit underdog, but they have been moved to a one-point favorite. Georgia State does have the better club and lost to an underrated UL-Monroe club after handing Louisiana it’s lone conference defeat the game prior. Though I think Georgia State could win, Georgia Southern is 5-0 SU and ATS at home against their state rival.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Georgia State

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Georgia Southern

CBB – (827) BOWLING GREEN at (828) BUFFALO  7:00 ET ESPNU

The total in this MAC matchup has really tumbled, down from 163 to 159. Buffalo is a high octane team that goes up and down the floor, however, Bowling Green in more inconsistent and that why the total dipped so severely. Even if you include the Falcons being an 83-81 winner over Western Michigan in their last outing, in their previous five games the average total score is only 132 points. I’ll say Buffalo dictates the pace and these MAC rivals are 17-6 OVER of late, making me side with the higher score.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NHL – (57) ST. LOUIS at (58) DALLAS  8:35 ET FSMW, FSSW

This is the fourth meeting between these Central Division rivals and the home team has won all three. However, the betting interest is on the total and the 5.5 juice has been changed from -110 to -125 UNDER. On the surface, I could not see why this might occur, yet when digging deeper I discovered this. St. Louis is 16-5 UNDER after allowing two goals or more in the third period last game and Dallas is 6-0 UNDER off a home loss by two goals or more this season.

Betting Trend – 78% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

CBB – Saturday (569) VILLANOVA at (570) XAVIER  4:30 ET  FOX

Villanova looks vulnerable and is not playing with the same edge since losing glue-guy Phil Booth. Xavier has not lost since the Wildcats walloped them 89-65 (9-0 and 7-2 ATS) and the Musketeers appear to be peaking.

Anticipated Line – Xavier by 1 to 3 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Xavier covers (at these numbers)

CBB – Saturday (583) WEST VIRGINIA at (584) KANSAS  6:15 ET  ESPN

Neither team has been sharp in recent games and Kansas has dropped three games at Allen Fieldhouse and is just 6-6-1 ATS there. If West Virginia is catching six or seven points, they might be worth a look.

Anticipated Line – Kansas by 5 to 7 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean West Virginia

CBB – Saturday  (699) MONTANA at (700) IDAHO  10:00 ET

Big Sky leader Montana lost for the first time in conference play at Eastern Washington and they face third-place Idaho who has won five in a row. If the Vandals have a hot shooting night, they will win, but if the Grizzlies defense comes to play, Montana will be the winner.

Anticipated Line – Idaho by 1 to 3 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Montana

CBB – Sunday (843) DUKE at (844) CLEMSON  1:00 ET  ACCN

These two teams are currently tied for second place in the ACC and neither would want to slip to fourth with North Carolina just one game behind and possibly have to face Virginia in tourney semi-finals. Clemson is 13-0 and 9-1 ATS at home and both teams might be without a starter. Modest edge to Duke if Tigers are down two starters.

Anticipated Line – Pick to Clemson by 2

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Duke

CBB – Sunday (861) WICHITA STATE at (862) CINCINNATI  4:00 ET  ESPN

Talk about physical basketball! This should be a lot of fun, but I’ll side with Cincinnati off a loss and Wichita State’s perplexing play for a team with so many veterans. They will meet again in exactly two weeks.

Anticipated Line – Cincinnati by 6 to 8 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cincinnati

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 31-33-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 13-17 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 52-42-2 ATS

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