Today for line moves, let’s talk hoops, both college and pro and Thursday night football. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (15-9 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here Friday.
NBA – (515) DETROIT at (516) MILWAUKEE 8:05 ET FSD, FSWI
Detroit has lost three in a row on current road trip and has not shot the ball well as they wrap up trip in Milwaukee. Bettors have taken notice and moved the Pistons from +2.5 to +4. Yet it bares noting Detroit is 9-4 ATS on the road and the Bucks are below average defensive club and dead last in three-point shooting defense. With the total at 205, the Pistons are 10-2 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Milwaukee
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Detroit
NBA – (519) MINNESOTA at (520) L.A. CLIPPERS 10:35 ET ESPN
The total in this Western Conference clash has slide from 215 to 212.5. These teams just played in Minnesota on Sunday and Timberwolves were 112-106 winners, with the total closing at 214. Minnesota failed to cover that contest and lost the next night at Memphis as favorites. Here are two good reasons to consider the OVER. The T-Wolves are 16-6 OVER off a upset as a favorite and 14-2 OVER on the road having lost two of three.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Over
Doug’s VPID – Play Over
CBB – (559) LOYOLA-CHIC. at (560) FLORIDA 8:00 ET SECN
Florida is off an ugly 17-point loss to rival Florida State, as they shot 36.3 percent. They will face a Loyola-Chicago team that is off to an excellent 8-1 (4-2 ATS) start and the Ramblers are very good shooting team at 52.2 percent. With the Gators rising from -15 to -16.5 point favorites, normally I would all over the Loyola, but with Florida off such a bad defeat and shooting so poorly, I have to them the nod and the Gators are 10-2 ATS after a contest in which they had nine or fewer assists.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Florida
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Florida
NFL – Thursday – (101) NEW ORLEANS at (102) ATLANTA 8:25 ET NBC (side and total)
This NFC South showdown opened as a Pick, but with New Orleans playing like the better team all season, the Saints have been elevated to -1.6 point favorites. Atlanta has not had any home field advantage over New Orleans over the years and the Falcons are only 3-3 SU in their new building with the Saints 4-2 SU on the road. The total has slid from 55 to 53 and we agree with this since both are off big contests and might not have same energy on a short week.
Betting Trend – 56% backing New Orleans and 65% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans New Orleans and Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 284-278-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 176-139-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 439-389 -14 ATS