For line moves, college basketball returns and we also cover the action in the NBA and bowl games. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (44-34-2 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here tomorrow.
BOWLS – (275) PURDUE vs. (276) ARIZONA 8:30 ET FOX
Initially, there was a strong sentiment the Foster Farms bowl would be high-scoring affair, with sportsbooks release of 66.5. Recently however, that opinion has changed, at least in part, with the total down to 64. Though the Arizona offense can really score (41.8 PPG) and allow points (34.1 PPG), Purdue is receiving late recognition. The average Boilermakers contest this season averaged only 43.5 PPG and there is a substantial group that likes Purdue to control the pace. I disagree, with one of my VPID Super Systems 24-4 OVER in neutral field games.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NBA – (709) NEW YORK at (710) CHICAGO 8:05 ET MSG, NBC-CH
After another upset at Milwaukee last night, the Chicago Bulls are 8-2 and 9-1 ATS since Dec. 8th. The suddenly confident Bulls are getting contributions from the entire team and they have been moved from a Pick to -2 point home favorites over New York. The Knicks offense has slumped in losing three of four, scoring 98 PPG (season aver. 104 PPG). While I could make a case for New York, Chicago is really play well and is 7-0 ATS versus teams outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – Chicago covers
NBA – (711) TORONTO at (712) OKLAHOMA CITY 8:05 ET NBA-TV
Has Oklahoma City turned a corner? It seems that way, winners of five straight and seven of eight. Also, for our purposes, after being the worst bet in The Association most of the season, the Thunder is 5-3 ATS, which is a dramatic improvement. Basketball bettors now have enough faith in them to take OKC from -2.5 to -4 against visiting Toronto. The Raptors have not exactly been paupers, with a 14-2 record (11-5 ATS) going back 33 days. This should be high quality contest and I’ll back the Purple Dinosaurs off their worst shooting game of the season tonight, (33.7%).
Betting Trend – 85% backing Oklahoma City
Doug’s VPID Take – Toronto covers
CBB – (727) XAVIER at (728) MARQUETTE 8:30 ET FS1
Big East opener for these two clubs and there is disagreement about the total. Oddmakers were thinking a boatload of points and sent out total of 165. Hoops bettors checked in and said “not so sure” and the total is down to 162. It would seem the correct side hinges on Marquette’s ability to make three’s and Xavier’s to defend the arc. The Golden Eagles average a dozen made 3’s, while the Musketeers permit eight a contest. With Marquette at home and 6-0 OVER after covering three of four, l will back the higher score.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 300-300-12 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 184-150-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 465-419 -15 ATS