For line moves today we have a bowl games, college hoops and the Association. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (37-25-2 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here Friday.
BOWLS – (213) LOUISIANA TECH at (214) SMU 8:00 ET ESPN
The school of thought about coaching changes arises again as SMU has been lowered from -5 to -3.5 this morning. This and the fact the Mustangs limped to the finish line at 3-4 and 1-6 ATS, while Louisiana Tech had to win last two contests to become bowl eligible. Here is what I am looking at, with the total at 71, the Ponies are 4-2 ATS when the total is 70 or higher this season and the Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS when the total has been 66.5 or higher.
Betting Trend – 52% backing SMU
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean SMU
NBA – (709) UTAH at (710) OKLAHOMA CITY 8:05 ET FSOK
In spite of three All-Pro players on the roster, Oklahoma City is 29th in shooting in the league. Utah is better, however, if you look two-point field goal percentages for both clubs, the Jazz are 20th and the Thunder are 26th. With this info, the total has cratered two points to 197.5. In truth, the adjusted number looks spot on, but since these division rivals have already played two UNDER’s, let’s call for a third.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NBA – (723) PHOENIX at (724) L.A. CLIPPERS 10:35 ET FSAZ, PTLA
This Pacific Division encounter has added several layers to the total, up from 211 to 215.5. Both teams have suffered heavy injuries and neither would seem to have the firepower to surpass such a total. Each club has scored well below their season scoring average in their past five outings, making it harder to consider a higher score. Then add in when the total is 210 to 219.5 and a home team like the Clippers has gone under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games and is facing division foe, they are 32-11 UNDER.
Betting Trend – 98% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CBB – (729) JAMES MADISON at (730) FLORIDA 7:00 ET SECN
With Florida 1-4 SU and ATS since 5-0 start, there is real trepidation about the Gators covering the spread even against 4-8 James Madison. Sportsbooks sent Florida out at -23 and that number has been bitten off to -21. Though the Gators are averaging 85.7 PPG, they are run of mill shooters at 45.5 percent and are pedestrian defenders at 44.5 percent. One can certainly make the case for backing the Dukes.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Florida
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean James Madison
BOWLS – Dec. 21 – (215) TEMPLE vs. (216) FLOR. INTERNATIONAL 8:00 ET ESPN
Both these teams offenses got hot late in the year, which has helped push the total from 53 to 57.5. At the same time, it is fair to say both defenses have been ‘fairly generous’ in giving up points, which lead us in the direction of thinking me might have referees raising both arms skyward frequently.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
BOWLS – Dec. 22 – (217) UAB at (218) OHIO U. 12:30 ET ESPN
Because I will not have the Friday line moves completed to include this bowl game, I’m adding it now. The total in the Bahamas has gone up like the temperatures in that locale, rising from 57 to 59. This would appear to favor Ohio U. since they are 8-4 OVER and there average total score was 64.6 PPG. UAB is 8-3-1 UNDER and they averaged 53.9 total points per contest. I will back the OVER as both teams road scores are right at the adjusted number or higher.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 296-294-12 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 181-146-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 455-413 -15 ATS