VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Dec. 19th


For line moves today we have a bowl game, college hoops and hockey. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (35-24-2 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here tomorrow.

BOWLS – (211) AKRON at (212) FLORIDA ATLANTIC  7:00 ET  ESPN  (side and total)

The same night the odds on this bowl encounter were released, Florida Atlantic went up like Bitcoin from -17 to -21.5. The Owls have continued to fly higher, all the way to -23 before settling back at -22. The question on bettors minds is how can Akron stop FAU’s run game? Great question, however, the Zips never quit playing and at over three touchdowns, have backdoor possibilities. The total has also been pushed up, going from 62 to 65.5. I think winning the C-USA crown meant more to FAU than this bowl game and I see lower score and Akron coming up with cover.

Betting Trend – 70% backing FAU and 64% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Akron and Under

CBB – (531) RICE  at (532) NEW MEXICO  9:30 ET  AT&TSN (Local)

New Mexico is having horrible season at 3-8 and rest assured that is not playing well in Lobo-Land. Rice is also 3-8, but expectations are far different for the Owls. Not exactly sure why the Lobos have been changed from -12.5 to -15, however, I will give them the nod since they average four more 3-points per game than Rice and they are playing at home where they like most teams usually shoot better.

Betting Trend – 94% backing New Mexico

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New Mexico

CBB – (305) DAYTON at (306) ST. MARY’S  10:00 ET  FSOH, BAS

With St. Mary’s 0-3 ATS at home this season and Dayton 6-0 ATS on the road against teams making 48 percent or more of shot attempts, the Gaels have slide from -11 to -8.5. I will disagree with this line movement because I do not believe the Flyers are up to usual standards this year and I am not a fan of coach Anthony Grant. Also, all three of St. Mary’s non-covers were by 17 or more points. I will back the Gaels in this matchup.

Betting Trend – Was 59% backing St. Mary’s

Doug’s VPID Take – St. Mary’s covers

NHL – (69) MONTREAL at (70) VANCOUVER  10:05 ET  RSNP, TSN2

With both teams not playing well, due in part to injuries, it was surprising to see the Canadiens climb from -120 to -140 money line road favorites. Montreal has lost four of five while Vancouver is on 1-5 downward spiral. I will lean with the Canadiens, with the Canucks struggling to score and giving up too many goals.

Betting Trend – 85% backing Montreal

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Montreal


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 294-293-12 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 180-145-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 453-410 -15 ATS


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