For line moves let’s talk NFL and include Thursday night game. Also, a bonus NBA game to talk about Wednesday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here Friday.
NFL – Thursday – (353) WASHINGTON at (354) DALLAS 8:25 ET NBC (side and total)
With Dallas on a 0-3 SU and ATS downer, I wonder if them being sent out as -1.5 point favorites would hold up. My instincts proven correct as the Cowboys have been flipped to +1.5 home underdog. With this, the total is also on the move, up from 44 to 45.5. With Kirk Cousins and the Washington offense playing better than Dak Prescott and Dallas offense, it is plausible to think the Redskins can win and cover. Both defenses can be scored upon, but I am less sure of an Over.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Washington and 87% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Washington and Over
NBA – Wednesday – (709) MIAMI at (710) NEW YORK 7:35 ET SUN, MSG (side and total)
Both these teams are 10-10 and their matchup opened as a Pick. Later, oddsmakers adjusted Miami to a two- point favorite and also pushed the total up two digits to 203. The Heat is 6-5 SU and ATS on the road this season and is on a 6-0 SU and ATS run at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks, winning by whopping 16.5 PPG. The Under is 5-1 in those contests. However, this is a better New York squad, who has played very well at home with 9-4 and 10-3 ATS mark. For my money, this looks like a matching pair, either Miami and Under or New York and Over. I’ll say the Knicks finally get their revenge.
Betting Trend – 70% backing
Doug’s VPID Take – New York covers and Over
NFL – (353) SAN FRANCISCO at (354) CHICAGO 1:00 ET CBS
Not a good sign for Chicago, dropping from -5 to -3 point home favorites against 1-10 San Francisco. It is understandable the skepticism about the Bears because of their offense, but it’s not like the 49ers are explosive. From a value prospective, you have two similar offenses and Chicago the better defensive squad and at adjusted price the home team has increased value.
Betting Trend – 70% backing San Francisco
NFL – (359) DENVER at (360) MIAMI 1:00 ET FOX
Talk about two rats in hat! As bad as Denver is, they actually have support at Miami and have gone from +1 to -1 or even -1.5 depending on the sportsbook. This game has ‘pass’ written all over it, but we will side with the Dolphins with the Broncos a miserable 0-5 SU and against the spread on the road this season.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Denver
NFL – (367) KANSAS CITY at (368) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET CBS
After 5-0 start, who would have guessed Kansas City would be slipping as a favorite from -5 to -3 against the New York Jets. There is a great deal of turmoil surrounding the Chiefs, yet the fact is they are still in first place and have five games to fix what has gone wrong. The Jets are now making mistakes and beating themselves.
Betting Trend – 62% backing New York
NFL – (377) PHILADELPHIA at (378) SEATTLE 8:30 ET NBC
My oh my, isn’t this interesting! One of the best home teams in football has blown up as a home underdog. That is correct, Seattle has been sent from +3.5 to +6 versus the best team in the NFL, Philadelphia. The last time the Seahawks were a home underdog was 2012, 47 games ago (includes playoffs). A lot of pride in that Seattle uniform.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Philadelphia
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 270-273-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 172-138-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 423-382 -14 ATS