VPID Line Moves, Betting Trends and Free Pick for Dec. 13/14

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For line moves today we look at Week 15 NFL action and have free picks in NBA. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (26-16-1 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here Friday.

NBA – (705) OKLAHOMA CITY at (706) INDIANA  7:05 ET  ESPN

Basketball bettors have more faith in Oklahoma City than I do, flipping them from +1.5 to -1 point favorites. The Thunder has the talent, but is 1-11-1 ATS in the last month and on the road is 3-10 and 2-11 ATS this season. Despite having three perennial All-Stars on the roster, OKC in next to last in shooting percentage and has not shot better than 42 percent in last three games. With Indiana on a 4-0 spurt and 10-4 (9-5 ATS) at home, for my money it is the Pacers or Pass.

Betting Trend – 78% backing Indiana

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Indiana

NBA – (709) PORTLAND at (710) MIAMI  7:35 ET  CSNW, SUN

The total in this NBA clash is up two points to 203. Portland’s shooting has been like a yo-yo going up and down, however, their defense has been laughable in permitting over 50 percent shooting by opponents in last five starts on average. Miami’s offense has been a little better of late, scoring a couple more points a contest in past five outings, but here is what sends me thinking the other way. The Blazers covered two nights ago against Golden State and is10-1 UNDER after an ATS winner and the Heat just mauled Memphis and is 17-7 UNDER after a win by 10 points or more.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NBA – Thursday(301) DENVER at (302) INDIANAPOLIS  8:30 ET  NBC

The last Thursday night game of the year perfectly fits how most of the Thursday night games have been all season, uninteresting. But that does not mean bettors don’t have opinions on this crappy contest and they have pushed Denver up a point to -2.5. I will side with the Broncos who are relieved long losing streak is over and they still have better talent than the Colts and when the line is +3 to -3 and teams like Indy have gone under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games and are playing a conference contest, they are 14-39 ATS.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Denver

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Denver

NFL – Saturday (303) CHICAGO  at (304) DETROIT  4:30 ET  NFLN

With the worst running game in the NFL, Detroit has to rely on Matthew Stafford to find ways to win. The Lions remain in the chase for a Wild Card spot, but they are hardly an impressive bunch, with a +0.7 point winning differential and being +1.1 at home. With a 2-4 SU and ATS in their own building, Detroit has slipped from -7 to -5.5 over rival Chicago. With nothing to lose, the Bears could be dangerous.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Detroit

NFL – Saturday (305) L.A. CHARGERS at (306) KANSAS CITY  8:25 ET  NFLN

With the Chargers 7-2 SU and ATS since disastrous 0-4 start, they have the full backing of those betting football and have been flipped from +1 to -1.5 at Kansas City. While L.A. South is unquestionably playing better than the Chiefs, this will still require leap of faith to back the Bolts at this price since they have lost seven straight to K.C. If the Chiefs can keep running game going they could win, but secondary has to contain Philip Rivers.

Betting Trend – 58% backing L.A. South

NFL – (315) HOUSTON at (316) JACKSONVILLE  1:00 ET  CBS

Put together Jacksonville’s defense, which leads the league in points allowed at 15.5 per game, against Houston club that only scored 16 points at home in setback to San Francisco, with third-string quarterback T.J. Yates playing most of that contest and the starter this week and you have a sinking total from 40 to 39. The Jaguars are off unusual 30-point back to back contests and are 11-1 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games in their history.

Betting Trend – 54% backing Under

NFL – (319) ARIZONA at (320) WASHINGTON  1:00 ET  FOX

The sense one has is Arizona is still playing on this season, while Washington, at least the last couple weeks, has given up the ghost. I’m not the only one thinking this either, as the Redskins have slide from -5.5 to -4.5 or even -4 point favorites. All the Washington injuries seem to have taken a physical toll, which has spilled into the mental side. That is not to say backing the Cardinals does not come without baggage, since they are 1-5 ATS this season on the road.

Betting Trend – 61% backing Arizona

NFL – (321) BALTIMORE at (322) CLEVELAND  1:00  ET  CBS

Though Baltimore has won four previous visits to Cleveland and is 3-1 ATS, not one outcome has been by more six points. With this, the Ravens have been lowered from -9 to -7 in the Browns final home game of the season. Cleveland should have beaten Green Bay last week and is looking to avoid 0-8 record at home for the first time since becoming Cleveland 2.0 and rejoining NFL in 1999.

Betting Trend – 81% backing Cleveland

NFL – (323) L.A. RAMS at (324) SEATTLE  4:05 ET  FOX

Seattle’s pedigree and playing before the ’12th Man’ has football bettors giving them the benefit of the doubt, as the Seahawks have been switched from +1.5 to -1.5 point choice over the visiting Rams. Seattle needs a victory, because a season sweep give them the tiebreaker if we reach that point by the end of the year. Taking all aspects into account, the Rams are probably better overall team, but can they contain Russell Wilson?

Betting Trend – 70% backing Seattle

NFL – (327) TENNESSEE at (328) SAN FRANCISCO  4:25  ET  CBS

In spite of San Francisco’s record compared to Tennessee’s, what oddsmakers and sports bettors appear to be really saying after watching Jimmy Garapollo and Marcus Mariota play quarterback the last couple weeks is that the 49ers quarterback is better. Three weeks ago the Niners would have not been made a one-point favorite over the Titans and the wagering masses would not have pushed them to -2. Tennessee is 5-14 ATS on the road of late, but do they take a stand this week and play to talent level?

Betting Trend – 61% backing San Francisco

NFL – (329) DALLAS at (330) OAKLAND  8:30 ET  NBC

With Oakland providing another listless effort in being thumped by Kansas City, bettors are tired of this act and are supporting Dallas, who arrives in Oak-Town off a couple of imposing wins. The Cowboys are riding higher in the saddle being moved from a Pick to -3, and should be able to move the ball against Raiders defense that has not done the job all season. Oakland is 10-23 ATS when a home underdog of three or less.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Dallas

NFL – Monday – (331) ATLANTA at (332) TAMPA BAY  8:30 ET   ESPN

Atlanta has been moved a point from -5 to -6 at Tampa Bay. This should be a no-brainer for the Falcons, however, they have Carolina and New Orleans to close the season, making focus a concern. And what about the Buccaneers, do they put aside reported in-fighting and galvanize for one big home effort, or rollover like Rover? The Bucs are 0-6 ATS as dogs this season.

Betting Trend – 91% backing Atlanta

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 291-285-11 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 177-142-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 445-401 -15 ATS

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