VPID Line Moves, Betting Trends and Free Pick for Dec. 12

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For line moves today we look at the early bowl games and have a free pick in college basketball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (25-16-1 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here tomorrow.

CBB – (515) UW- GREEN BAY at (516) INDIANA STATE  7:00 ET  ESPN3

Indiana State has risen from -8.5 to -11 and I cannot come up with a lot of reasons as to why since UW- Green Bay is 4-1 ATS this season the Sycamores are 2-4 ATS. However, here is one reason to consider Larry Bird’s old school. UW-Green Bay just lost to Missouri 100-77, in which the closing total was 143. This leads to December road underdogs like the Phoenix, having gone over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, being 7-32 ATS in their next contest since 2013.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Indiana State

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Indiana State

BOWLS – (205) OREGON vs. (206) BOISE STATE   3:30 ET   ABC

Oregon might have lost their head coach, but they have QB Justin Herbert back, which probably matters more. With Hebert at the controls, The Ducks offense was outstanding and this is leading factor why Oregon has been taken from -5 to -7.5. The other aspect is though Boise State defense has good numbers, they gave points a lot of points to faster clubs.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Oregon

BOWLS – (207) MARSHALL vs. (208) COLORADO STATE     4:30 ET   ESPN

With the average score of Marshall game just over 45 points, it would seem oddmakers are thinking Colorado State will control the pace and elevated the total from 55 to 58. The normal score of a Rams contest is 61.1 PPG, though that dips rather dramatically when they are not home to 46.1 PPG. This should be lower scoring.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Over

BOWLS – (209) MID. TENNESSEE STATE vs. (210) ARKANSAS STATE   8:00 ET   ESPN

This bowl battle features the largest totals move of all, up a whopping five points to 62.5. With QB Brent Stockstill back, the Middle Tennessee State offense is completely different and they can score on anyone. It is a given Arkansas State will pile up the points since they are averaging nearly 40 a contest.

Betting Trend – 94% backing Over

BOWLS – Monday (211) AKRON at (212) FLORIDA ATLANTIC  7:00 ET  ESPN2

The same night the odds on this bowl encounter were released, Florida Atlantic went up like Bitcoin from -17 to -21.5. The Owls have continued to fly higher, all the way to -22.5. The question on bettors minds is how can Akron stop FAU’s run game? Great question, however, the Zips never quit playing and at over three touchdowns, backdoor possibilities.

Betting Trend – 60 % backing FAU

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 290-285-11 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 177-142-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 444-401 -15 ATS

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