VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Mar. 23rd

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With no real line moves coming for the weekend, at least not yet, all are focus will be on today. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (119-96-4 run) to see what we are thinking today.

NBA – (853) DENVER at (854) WASHINGTON  7:05 ET  NBA-TV

The total in this clash has dipped three points to 217.5 and there are two ways to look at what happened. One, the adjustment is incorrect as both teams have shown a recent tendency toward playing Over’s. The other way to view this total is the road/home comparison, with Denver at 218.2 total points and Washington at 215. So what side is correct? I’ll side with the OVER with the Nuggets on a 16-5 OVER run and the Wizards 8-1 OVER when playing only their second game in five days.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

NBA – (863) MILWAUKEE at (864) CHICAGO  8:05 ET  FSWI, CSCH (side and total)

Despite the fact the Greek Freak will not play for Milwaukee in the Windy City, the Bucks have been elevated from -3.5 to -5.5. Along with this, the total has been jacked up like interest rates from 215.5 to 217. Though the Bulls have dropped three straight, do you really comfortable backing  Milwaukee as a growing favorite since they are 3-13 ATS since Feb. 13th? Not me! Even without the talented big man, I see the Bucks playing as they have, scoring a bunch and playing matador defense and will back the OVER.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Milwaukee and 59% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Chicago and Over

NBA – (865) UTAH at (866) SAN ANTONIO  8:35 ET  FSSW

These are two of the hottest teams in the NBA, but the focus for tonight from hoops bettors in on the total, up from 193.5 to 195. This would appear to be an incorrect line move as these are the Top 2 scoring defenses in the Association. However, upon closer inspection, the Jazz and Spurs have played seven straight OVER’s. Plus, when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and road team’s like Utah have won eight or more of their last 10 games and are playing on consecutive days, the OVER is 27-6 the last five years.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NCAAT – (877) CLEMSON vs. (878) KANSAS  7:07 ET  CBS

In order to include one Sweet 16 game today, we took the biggest one we could find and it is not much, with Kansas up one digit from -4 to -5. In spite of how Kansas is playing of late, Clemson has adjusted to playing without Donte Grantham. For me, the key is the total of 142.5 in taking the Tigers. When looking at the side and total numbers, that would make Kansas a 74-69 winner. In Clemson’s last 13 contests in which they have scored at least 67 points, they are 10-2-1 ATS. In that same span of time when they failed to reach 67 on the scoreboard they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS.

Betting Trend – 64% backing Clemson

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Clemson

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 42-43-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 22-24-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 67-64-3 ATS

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