VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Mar. 21/22


For line moves today I will cover Wednesday’s biggest moves and Thursday’s in the Sweet 16. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (116-93-4 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday

NBA – (755) NEW YORK at (756) MIAMI  7:35 ET  MSG, SUN

The total in this Eastern Conference clash has jumped from 214 to 216.5. Though I understand the thinking behind this when looking at the two teams most recent games, I’m still not on board. New York has been playing good defense of late and Miami has been either very good or very poor when it comes to field goal percentage. In these team’s past four meetings the high water mark on points was 210. I’ll side with the UNDER.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NBA – (761) DENVER at (762) CHICAGO  8:05 ET  ALT, CSCH

This conflict has seen a dramatic dip in the total from 222 to 217.5. I can understand why if you review the home/road numbers for both squads on the season. Where I disagree is both clubs are trending above 220 total points in their past five outings and each of the past four contests has finished as an OVER.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

CBB – (665) WEST. KENTUCKY at (666) OKLAHOMA ST.  8:00 ET  ESPN2 (side and total)

The first NIT game of the night has Oklahoma State as a growing favorite, taken from -4.5 to -6. At the same time, the total is up two points to 149.5. I actually liked the Cowboys at the original number because only Kansas has shot over 41.7 percent against them in their past eight games. With Western Kentucky 12-7 and 13-6 ATS away from home, just a small lean with Okie State. The Hilltoppers are off two sharp offensive games, but Oklahoma State is 9-2 UNDER as home favorite this season.

Betting Trend – 65% backing Oklahoma State and 95% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under, Lean Oklahoma State

NCAAT – Thursday(817) TEXAS A&M at (818) MICHIGAN  7:35 ET  TBS

My initial reaction was surprise to seeing this total going up from 134 to 136, as both teams have been playing very good defense. Also, the trend of the tournament is toward lower than anticipated scores with the Under 31-20-1. Nonetheless, Michigan is an example of a team that cannot play outstanding defense every time (see Virginia) and they are 8-2 OVER after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games this season, with average total score 142.2.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NCAAT – Thursday – (817) FLORIDA STATE at (818) GONZAGA  10:05 ET  TBS

In the nightcap of the West Regional, this total has slid from 155 to 152.5. I concur with this as in Florida State’s past six contests outside of Tallahassee they are averaging exactly 70 PPG. Though Gonzaga averages over 80 points home or away, they are permitting just 67.9 PPG on the season (albeit, versus lesser competition). Plus, the Zags are 11-2 UNDER when the total is 150 to 159.5 the last two seasons.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under


Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 40-41-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 20-24-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 63-62-3 ATS


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