Starting this week, on Friday’s we will start adding in series wagering in baseball to go along with our line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (127-103-4 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.
NBA – (507) CLEVELAND at (508) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET NBA-TV
An extremely important game for seeding purposes for both teams in the East. However, the wagering action is focused on the total where the total is up two points to 224. With and without Joel Embiid, the Philadelphia offense has been on fire during their long winning streak and is averaging over 116 PPG in their past nine battles. For 43 minutes last night, the Cleveland defense was dreadful, but they picked it up when it counted and they had a huge come from behind win against Washington. I suspect we will see a great deal of defensive intensity tonight in Philly and the Cavs are 11-1 UNDER when playing on back-to-back days this season.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NBA – (515) SACRAMENTO at (516) MEMPHIS 8:05 ET FSS
A “who cares” contest has seen the total fly from 198 to 202.5. I’m having a hard time understanding why, as both these crummy clubs are averaging well under 100 points in their last seven outings. Maybe somebody knows something I don’t, but Memphis is 12-2 UNDER at home after playing three consecutive road games.
Betting Trend – 93% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (903) CINCINNATI at (904) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET FSOH
From a common sense standpoint, Cincinnati being flipped from +120 to -120 over Pittsburgh makes no sense. The Reds are 1-4 while Pittsburgh is a sizzling 5-1. Cincy starter Luis Castillo (0-1, 10.80 ERA) was pounded in his first outing and Pirates hurler Trevor Williams tossed six no-hit innings to begin his season. Castillo has more ability and had a bad outing and has thrown well twice against the Bucs. Nevertheless, I cannot overlook the Reds are 5-18 after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Pittsburgh
Doug’s VPID Take – Pittsburgh wins
MLB – (907) L.A. DODGERS at (908) SAN FRANCISCO 10:15 ET SNLA, KNTV
The Dodgers were just swept in the desert and will try and rebound against their most hated rival. Baseball bettors are backing L.A. and shifted the Dodgers from -135 to -150 on the money line. Besides overall talent, the Kenta Maeda vs. Derek Holland matchup was a mismatch last Saturday (5-0 L.A.) and most are expecting more of the same. Let’s see how Maeda does on the road and keep in mind the Dodgers are 6-11 after three straight setbacks.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean San Francisco
MLB – TORONTO (-130) at TEXAS (+110) (Series Betting)
These predictions are predicated on current pitching matchups for the series as they are, but they could change. In looking at the series, Toronto has the pitching edge in Game 2 and Texas in the series finale. That to my way of thinking makes the series opener the deciding factor. The Blue Jays are a -125 road favorite to start and I’ll side with Marco Estrada and Toronto’s bullpen and pick the Jays.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Toronto
Doug’s VPID Take – Toronto wins
MLB – OAKLAND (+165) at L.A.A. ANGELS (-190) (Series Betting)
This is an underrated rivalry, with a lot of bad feelings. For years the road team was a consistent winner both in series wagering and in individual games. However, the Halos have enjoyed more success in recent years. In looking over the pitching matchup, this could be a trio of one-run games. But in the end, the Angels bullpen is a little stronger and they have more offense to rely on.
Betting Trend – 63% backing L.A.A. Angels
Doug’s VPID Take – L.A.A. Angels win
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 47-46 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 23-30-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 72-74-3 ATS