VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for April 4th

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With so much day baseball on Wednesday and injuries in the NBA, we really had to narrow our focus for line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (124-102-4 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday

NBA – (509) MEMPHIS at (510) NEW ORLEANS  8:05 ET  FSSE+, FSNO

With five games remaining, New Orleans could finish anywhere from 4th in the West or be out of the playoffs altogether. Having lost four straight, they need a victory to regain some confidence. The betting action is following the total and it has dropped two points to 214.5. This is no easy call with the Pelicans 9-0 OVER at home playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season and Memphis 14-3 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. I think the point range is correct and will side ever so slightly with the OVER.

Betting Trend – 81% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

MLB – (919) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (920) TORONTO  7:07 ET  RSN

We have more of an idea what to expect from the Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez than the White Sox Carson Fulmer, but oddsmakers seemed to have dug their heels in on the total. The AL encounter opened at Un9 (-115) and by midday afternoon Eastern, the 9 was now an Over with the juice around -127. Toronto has been swinging the bats during their four-game winning streak at 7.00 RPG, but they are 14-3 UNDER after four or more consecutive wins recently and I will side with that info.

Betting Trend – 95% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

MLB – (921) TEXAS at (922) OAKLAND  10:05 ET  FSSW, CSCA

The Rangers Doug Fister only allowed one run over five innings in his first start, yet did allow seven base-runners. Fister would appear ready to give up a bunch of runs at any juncture which partially explains Texas blowing up from +140 to +155 against Oakland. Sean Manaea will take the ball for the A’s and his team is 14-7 hosting Texas the last few years. Though the value is with Texas, hard to trust Fister and I’ll lean with the Athletics.

Betting Trend – 90% backing Texas

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oakland

NHL  – (1) OTTAWA at (2) BUFFALO  7:35 ET  TVA

I will be honest, this money line move amazes me. In a matchup of the two worst teams in the NHL, enough bettors have wagered on Buffalo to take them from -127 to -140 over Ottawa. Myself, I’d rather go sit at a roulette table and play red or black even with two green zero slots than bet this garbage game. Nevertheless, it does have a line move and I’ve committed to making picks on these type of contests, no matter who awful they might be. Give me the Sabres who win the season series with a ‘W’ because they are 11-4 at home after allowing four goals or more in two straight games.

Betting Trend – 90% backing Buffalo

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Buffalo

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 47-46 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 22-27-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 71-71-3 ATS

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