VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for April 27-29

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Another big weekend of sports wagering and we have all the latest line moves and more from the NBA Playoffs and Major League baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (152-126-5 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.

NBA – (515) OKLAHOMA CITY at (516) UTAH  10:35 ET  TNT (side and total)

Bettors are counting on Utah to advance to the next round of the playoffs and have elevated the Jazz up a point to -6.5. At the same time, they have increased the total a digit from 206 to 207. Utah should have eliminated Oklahoma City on Wednesday but squandered a 20+ point lead. Expect the Jazz to stay in tune for four quarters and cover the spread with a lot of help from their defense and crowd, which also leads to UNDER.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Boston and 63% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Utah and Under

MLB – (953) ARIZONA at (954) WASHINGTON  7:05 ET  FSAZ, MASN

With Washington back home after a mediocre 4-5 road trip, Stephen Strasburg (2-2, 2.97 ERA) taking the mound instills confidence in those betting baseball as the Nationals have been moved from -145 to -160. One problem, Arizona is the first NL team in 41 years to win their first eight series to start the season and they are 7-0 as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Washington

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona

MLB – (971) N.Y. YANKEES at (972) L.A.A. ANGELS  10:05 ET YES, FSW (side and total)

This should be a compelling series and first game is no easy choice either way. New York comes in a six-game winning streak, while Anaheim is below .500 at the Big A and has dropped five of six there. The Yankees opened as a -160 favorite with Luis Severino (4-1, 2.32) toeing the slap in Game 1. And despite the fact Andrew Heaney (0-1, 9.64) has been anything but sharp for the Halos, New York is down to -145. The Bronx Bombers have the bats to punish lefty’s and win this contest. However, I think the total going down to 8 is a mistake (from 8.5) with the Yanks 16-4 OVER this month.

Betting Trend – 77% backing New York and 92% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins and Over

MLB – L.A. DODGERS (-155) at SAN FRANCISCO (+135) (Series Betting)

The Dodgers World Series hangover continues, while San Francisco is generally playing better than a year ago, but that is really not that difficult to do. In this series, I like L.A. to take the opener behind Ryu, but the other two games could go either way. Given the Giants are the smarter, if less talented squad who always gets up for this intense series, I’ll put my money on the underdog.

Betting Trend – 83% backing L.A. Dodgers

Doug’s VPID Take – San Francisco wins

NBASaturday(701) MILWAUKEE at (702) BOSTON  8:05 ET  TNT

After four straight OVER’s to start this series, evidently the familiarity has taken hold and the past two confrontations have been UNDER’s. In a Game 7 scenario, the thinking is more of the same with the total sinking from 197 to 195. Milwaukee size and length is bothering Boston, which is why they have shot over 42 percent once in this series. But the 197 opener was already the lowest total in the series and taking it down further seems like a reach. I’ll lean with the OVER and know the Bucks are 8-1 OVER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

NBASaturday(551) NEW ORLEANS at (552) GOLDEN STATE  10:35 ET  TNT  (side and total)

Though New Orleans is the hottest team in the NBA on an 8-0 SU and ATS move after an impressive sweep of Portland, the betting action is on the defending champs, who went from -7.5 to -8.5. As well as the Pelicans are playing, I’m inclined to believe they slide under the oddsmakers number based on the momentum they are playing with. Though I’m not wild about the total rising from 222 to 223.5, four of the past five meetings have gone OVER, thus, this one might too.

Betting Trend – 77% backing New Orleans and 85% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans on New Orleans and Over

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 60-53-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 35-41-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 91-94-4 ATS

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