For line moves, we have a little bit of everything today, including talk of the start of the second round of Stanley Cup playoffs. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (152-122-4 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (501) BOSTON at (502) MILWAUKEE 8:05 ET TNT
Boston was made a five-point underdog for this Game 6 matchup with Milwaukee, looking to clinch their first round matchup. Most sharp bettors are not sure who wins the contest, but they agree the Celtics and the points is the correct wager. This has forced sportsbooks to lower the C’s to +4 and it makes sense. Boston is 20-6 ATS as an underdog and the Bucks are a horrific 10-23-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take – Boston covers
MLB – (911) SEATTLE at (912) CLEVELAND 6:10 ET RTNW, STO
This line movement is based on potential. If Seattle’s James Paxton (1-1, 5.61 ERA) is on his A-game, he could limit Cleveland’s offense and the Mariners might win. That possibility and the right amount of money from particular bettors has chased the M’s from +125 to +105 against the Indians. However, you also have to consider Paxton is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA against Cleveland and that the Indians Mike Clevinger (2-0, 1.75) has started the year extremely sharp. From this seat, there appears to be a lot of value with the Indians.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Cleveland
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland
MLB – (917) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (918) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET CSC, FSKC (side and total)
For two teams that have five wins apiece, there is more interest than one might expect in this AL Central clash. The reason why is Jakob Junis (3-1, 2.03) vs. Lucas Giolito (0-3, 9.00) matchup on the bump and with this the Royals have crept from -145 to -160. Along with comes the belief the Kansas City offense will contribute more than there 3.3 RPG since the total went from 8.5 to 9. Junis is the real deal, so K.C. makes sense. The total is likely to be helped because both bullpens have ERA’s well over 5.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Kansas City and 59% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Kansas City wins and Lean Over
NHL – (81) SAN JOSE at (82) VEGAS 10:05 ET NBCSN
When the odds on Game 1 of this Western Conference semi-final came out Vegas jumped from -130 to -140 or higher. The money line has stayed largely the same except in Sin City where most books are now at -150 or higher thanks to the locals. I’m of the opinion San Jose wins one of the two games to start the series on the strip and I’ll take the Sharks. If I’m right, I snag a profit either today or the next encounter.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Vegas
Doug’s VPID Take – San Jose wins
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 60-56-2 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 34-40-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 89-92-3 ATS