VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for April 24th

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With no hockey action today, our line moves focus is on basketball and the action on the diamond tonight. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (151-119-4 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (703) MIAMI at (704) PHILADELPHIA  7:05 ET  TNT

 A rising total in an odd-numbered game does not appear to be a good news for the Miami Heat. Facing elimination tonight, Miami has seen the total climb from 211.5 to 215. In Games 1 and 3, Philadelphia lit up the Heat defense for 130 and 128 points respectively and won by 27 and 20 points. The Sixers are a solid 16-7 OVER after a road win, with an average total score over 222 total points.

Betting Trend – 93% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

MLB – (901) ATLANTA at (902) CINCINNATI  6:40 ET  FSSO, FSOH

To borrow from the great Harry Carry “Holy Cow”! Cincinnati wins for just the fourth time in 22 games and all the sudden they have all kinds of support. With the Reds a 10-4 underdog winner over Atlanta last night, they have fallen from +130 home underdogs to +115. In truth, Cincinnati is not that bad of a team, though they are not close to .500 either. Overall, the Braves are a deserving favorite and starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy has thrown very well (3-0, 2.91 ERA) and his team is 4-0 in his starts. If you believe in history, McCarthy’s 3-19 record on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 (Team’s Record), which has to at least make any bettor wary.

Betting Trend – 89% backing Atlanta

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Atlanta

MLB – (903) ARIZONA at (904) PHILADELPHIA  7:05 ET  FSAZ, CSP

Since there first start of the season, the D-Backs Robbie Ray (2-0, 4.98) and Phillies right-hander Vince Velasquez (1-2, 3.80) has gotten better in their past three outings. Ray has an ERA of 3.24 and Velasquez has been even better at 2.41. With both offenses having cooled over their past seven games by more than a run per contest, the total has crumbled from 8 to 7.5. With Ray still walking too many batters, being taken deep five times in four starts and the Phillies averaging over nine runs versus lefty’s, I’ll back the OVER is in this NL affair.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

MLB – (923) L.A.A. ANGELS at (924) HOUSTON  8:10 ET  FSW, ATTH

Though the Angels offense continues to scuffle, they made two runs hold up in shutting out Houston 2-0 on Monday night. This brought them to within a game of the first place Astros in the AL West. With Charlie Morton (3-0, 0.72) pitching brilliantly and Shohei Ohtani (2-1, 3.60) capable of doing so, the total has drifted downward from 8.5 to 8. The lower score looks correct, but Ohtani was obviously too jacked last week in facing Boston last just two innings (Finger problem was also to blame) and one still has to wonder if that would be an issue. Still, the Halos are on 13-2 UNDER binge when facing opponents that win 62 percent or more of their contests.

Betting Trend – 77% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 59-55-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 34-38-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 88-89-3 ATS

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