VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for April 20-22

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For line moves, we have the NBA Playoffs and baseball sides, totals and series wagering talk. Though we have line moves in hockey, all the -200 or larger favorites just keep growing and that is not newsworthy. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (148-114-4 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.

NBA – (715) BOSTON at (716) MILWAUKEE  9:35 ET  ESPN (side and total)

Milwaukee shot 53.7% in Boston and failed to win or cover either game. Having a -15 turnover margin will do that to you. Bettors do not trust the Bucks even at home and down 0-2 in the series and have lowered them from -6 to -5 point favorites. Neither teams defense is being trusted either, as the total has climbed from 202.5 to 205. I would agree with both line moves with Milwaukee 3-14 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less and 16-3 OVER after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight contests.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Boston and 89% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Boston cover and Over

MLB – (903) N.Y. METS at (904) ATLANTA  7:35 ET  SNY, FSSO

Nobody would have thought this possible a week ago, but the Mets with Noah Syndergaard (2-0, 2.95 ERA) are a falling favorite, down from -160 to -140 or less. That is what happens when you lose four of six, while Atlanta on a nice little 5-2 move. The Braves have the top offense in the NL at 5.8 RPG, but I’m just not sure I can trust starter Sean Newcombe (1-1, 4.02). However, I cannot ignore the Mets are a miserable 0-10 in road games vs. teams with a bullpen ERA is 3.45 or better.

Betting Trend – 88% backing New York

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Atlanta

MLB – (915) TORONTO at (916) N.Y. YANKEES 7:05 ET  SNET, YES

Some feel last night’s low scoring AL East encounter will give way to another, as the total has sunk from 9 to 8.5. Marco Estrada (1-1, 4.24) takes the ball for Toronto, while Sonny Gray (1-1, 6.92) does the same for the Yankees. I’m headed the other direction for this total and I’m not alone. The Bronx Bombers are 11-2-1 OVER this month and Gray is 8-0 OVER at home against teams like the Blue Jays averaging 1.25 or more home runs per game.

Betting Trend – 93% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

MLB – BOSTON (-150) at OAKLAND (+130) (Series Betting)

While I understand Boston is on the road, I’m befuddled they are this low a series favorite. Since losing on Opening Day, the BoSox are 16-1. Granted, at some point, the Red Sox will stop averaging 6.1 RPG and their starting pitchers will not have a baseball-best 1.98 ERA. Nonetheless, I’ll take my chances with Boston’s offense and in order having Drew Pomeranz, Chris Sale, and David Price as the scheduled starters.

Betting Trend – 81% backing Boston

Doug’s VPID Take – Boston wins

NBA – Saturday(717) PHILADELPHIA at (718) MIAMI  2:35 ET  TNT

Thus far the Philadelphia offense has played great in the odd-numbered games of the series and they were off-kilter in the lone even-numbered affair. The early wagering action aligns with a somewhat lowering scoring contest, with the total sinking from 217 to 215. This thinking can only be predicated on the belief Miami will actually defend the three-point, something they did not do in Games 1 and 3. Game 2 was only one basket away from also being an OVER and Philly is 16-6 OVER after a road win.

Betting Trend – 90% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NBA – Saturday (721) HOUSTON at (722) MINNESOTA  7:35 ET  ESPN

The series opener was surprising only because Houston did not cover. The Rockets winning the next contest by 20 did not catch anyone off guard, but James Harden shooting 2 for 18 certainly did. Assemble these factors into a thought process and it makes sense the Rockets are soaring from -3 to -5 in the land of thousands of very cold lakes. Houston is too good a shooting team to keep hitting such a low percentage and they pull away in the fourth quarter after a valiant Timberwolves effort.

Betting Trend – 92% backing Houston

Doug’s VPID Take – Houston covers

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 59-54-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 30-36-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 86-85-3 ATS

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