Today we have line moves in the NBA and NHL Playoffs along with baseball action. Plus, a Thursday NBA contest which seen a large move already. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (145-112-4 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday.
NBA – (517) INDIANA at (518) CLEVELAND 7:05 ET TNT
The closing total on the series opener of this series was 212.5 and after the teams failed to reach even 180 total points, the oddsmakers lowered the Game 2 total to 209. Basketball bettors disagreed and have pushed the total up three whole points to 212. The general consensus is Cleveland could not have shot the ball any worse and they will drain for more attempts. I concur and think the Cavs win the game, but will have to score and play their usual poor defense.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (909) PHILADELPHIA at (910) ATLANTA 7:35 ET CSP, FSSO
The Atlanta offense has either been good or not so good to start the season and the latter is the case so far in this series with three runs against Philadelphia. In the series finale, the total has climbed from 8.5 to 9 in spite of starters Vince Velasquez (1-1, 3.52 ERA) and Brandon McCarthy (2-0, 3.31) throwing rather well. Granted, this Braves team is better than the one of the last two season, nonetheless, if they are home and off two contests scoring two or fewer runs the past three years, the average total score in 14 conflicts is 7.6 runs.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (925) BOSTON at (926) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:07 ET NESN, FSW
Last night’s expected pitcher’s battle never materialized as Boston battered
Shohei Ohtani and Luke Bard for nine runs in three innings in a 10-1 drubbing. In the middle game of the series, the total has dropped from 8.5 to 8 with two starters in excellent form after lost seasons a year ago. Rick Porcello (3-0, 1.83) is back to his Cy Young form of 2016 and Tyler Skaggs (2-0, 1.69) has a superb ERA but is escaping trouble more than having dominant stuff. I believe there is enough offense from the AL’s two-best scoring clubs to make this an OVER play.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NHL – (61) NASHVILLE at (62) COLORADO 10:05 ET NBCSN
Top-seeded Nashville losing at Colorado was not the end of the world, but it was how they were beaten which is causing consternation. The 5-3 Avs victory was complete and they were more aggressive throughout and really took the game to the Predators. With that Nashville has slid from -170 to -155 on the money line. Though the Avalanche is 18-9 on home ice against foes averaging 2.85 or more GAG, the Preds have taken 13 of 17 versus Colorado.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Nashville
Doug’s VPID Take – Nashville wins
NBA – (523) PHILADELPHIA at (524) MIAMI 7:05 ET TNT
Philadelphia was brilliant in Game 1 and Dwayne Wade found the fountain of youth a couple days later to tie up this series. Most sportsbooks sent the Sixers out at +1 or a Pick and now the visitor is listed as a two-point favorite. We can assume this sentiment is tied to the anticipated return of Joel Embiid, though there is no confirmation at this time that will happen. My opinion is this, if Embiid plays 20 minutes, the 76ers win and cover. If not teams off long winning streak will frequently suffer letdowns and Philly fits the pattern, unless Embiid is their energy bunny.
Betting Trend – 90% backing Philadelphia
Doug’s VPID Take – Embiid status makes the call
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 57-54-2 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 28-35-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 84-82-3 ATS