VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for April 17th


We are right back at it with line moves in NBA and NHL Playoffs along with baseball action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (142-111-4 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (709) NEW ORLEANS at (710) PORTLAND  10:35 ET  TNT

One might have thought with New Orleans engineering Game One 97-95 upset of Portland, the Pelicans better defense was the difference. With this thinking in mind, the total rising from 212.5 to 214 would seem to benefit the Trail Blazers. However, that is not necessarily the case since the Blazers are the better defensive team and New Orleans the higher scoring club. Though Portland missed a lot of open shots Saturday, they are 14-4 UNDER at home after a loss by six points or less and the Pelicans are 12-3 UNDER in road games when playing with two days’ rest.

Betting Trend – 68% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

MLB – (953) WASHINGTON at (954) N.Y. METS  7:10 ET  MASN, SNY

Washington handed the Mets just their third setback of the season (all at home by the way) and baseball bettors are convinced it could happen again. The Nationals were released as +110 underdogs and are now sitting as -120 favorites. The analytics crowd has been crying in their wine glasses, as they started complaining Gio Gonzalez fastball had lost too much velocity in 2016 and said his demise was imminent. Gonzalez won 15 games last year and had a 2.96 ERA (WAR of 6.6 for those sipping chardonnay) and this year after three starts he’s at 2.20. With the lefty 14-5 against the Metropolitans and his team having the same record at Citi Field over the past three years, let’s take the Nats.

Betting Trend – 57% backing New York

Doug’s VPID Take – Washington wins

MLB – (975) BOSTON at (976) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET  NESN, FSW (side and total)

The two best teams in the AL open up a three-game series and those betting baseball are thinking its – Ohtani time. Shohei Ohtani (2-0, 2.08 ERA) is living up to billing and the money line on the Angels has moved from -140 to -165. Of course, the Japanese sensation is not the only reason for the Halos success, as their 13-3 start is the best in franchise history and they are riding seven-game winning streak. Nevertheless, making Boston a +155 underdog when they have an even better record at 13-2 (best start in 118-year history), even if David Price (1-1, 2.40) left after one inning in his last start with numbness. No question the value is on the Red Sox, but I have five systems that are over 80% that back the Angels. The total has also climbed from 7.5 to 8, but I see a well-pitched 4-3 outcome.

Betting Trend – 93% backing L.A.A. Angels and 53% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans L.A.A. Angels and Under


Columbus is in unchartered waters, leading a playoff series 2-0 for the first time ever. The Blue Jackets become the fifth team in NHL history to trail by at least two goals and win both playoff games back to back. Now home, Columbus can all but wrap up the series, but hockey bettors are skittish and lowered the Jackets from -140 to -130. The Capitals have nobody to blame but themselves for blowing both contests and will start Brandon Holtby between the pipes. Myself, I’d be fine if Columbus won since the Caps have blown numerous playoff chances over the last several years, but I’ll side with them here being 12-2 after allowing four goals or more in two straight games.

Betting Trend – 83% backing Washington

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington


Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 55-53 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 27-34-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 81-84-3 ATS


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