VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for April 11th

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OK, I changed my mind on the NBA for line moves since I found a game that had importance for both teams. We complete the process with three baseball line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (135-106-4 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday.

NBA – (707) DENVER at (708) MINNESOTA 8:05 ET  ALT, FSNO (side and total)

Huge game on the NBA card, with a winner takes all game for the last spot in the playoffs in the Western Conference. Minnesota has shot up from -2 to -3.5 or -4, depending on the sportsbook and the total has slipped two points to 215.5. Of course, the pressure is tremendous on both teams, but Denver has won six in a row, however; the Timberwolves have Jimmy Butler back. At +4 I’ll take the Nuggets with the points and the UNDER, realizing the T-Wolves are 4-12 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games and 14-4 UNDER after two or more Under’s this season.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Minnesota and 60% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Denver and Under

MLB – (973) TORONTO at (974) BALTIMORE  7:05 ET  SNET, MASN

Toronto has taken the first two games of this divisional series and goes for the sweep tonight over Baltimore. Of particular interest to baseball bettors is the total, which has climbed from 8.5 to 9. Personally, I find this fascinating since 14 of the past 18 matchups at Camden Yards have produced UNDER’s. In addition, the Jays Marco Estrada has 3.19 ERA against the Birds and the Orioles Kevin Gausman is at 3.12 vs. the Canadien Birds. Both pitchers are 9-4 UNDER against the other team. Maybe, it’s the home plate umpire Quinn Wolcott, who is 35-22 OVER recently. No matter, I’m on the UNDER.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

MLB – (977) L.A.A. ANGELS at (978) TEXAS  8:05 ET  KCOP, FSSW

With the Angels six-man rotation blowing up with two starting pitchers hurt already, they turn to Jaime Barria, who will make his major-league debut. Factor this with the Halos having one of the hottest offense in the majors at 6.6 RPG and they are facing mashable Matt Moore (0-2, 11.5 ERA) of Texas. No wonder the total exploded from 10.5 to 11.5. Truthfully, not an easy call at this price, but Angels offense is smoldering and the Rangers should get their share also.

Betting Trend – 96% backing over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

MLB  – (979) OAKLAND at (980) L.A. DODGERS  10:10 ET  CSCA, SNLA

After this many years, Alex Wood (still only 27) of the Dodgers has figured it out and is continuing where he left off last season with 1.93 ERA after two starts. Consider this and the Los Angeles offense having tallied only 10 runs in the past five contests, along with Oakland at a measly 1.2 RPG against left-handed starters in four tries, nobody is shocked the total slid from 8 to 7.5. Easy call right, until you find out Wood and boys in blue are 13-3 OVER playing against a team with a losing record.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 51-49 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 25-32-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 75-78-3 ATS

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