VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for April 10th

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Because of the uncertainty of who might or might not be playing in the NBA, the Line Moves will pass on The Association the next two days and focus on other action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (131-104-4 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow

MLB – (903) CINCINNATI at (904) PHILADELPHIA  7:05 ET FSOH, CSP

Those betting baseball are looking at Aaron Nola pitching for the Phillies tonight against a Cincy lineup that is averaging 3.3 RPG and they adjusted the total downward from 8 to 7.5. However, hittable Homer Bailey is starting for the Reds and the Cincinnati bullpen has an ERA of almost six. With Cincy about a +185 road underdog, let’s consider the OVER with the visitor 21-8 OVER as road pooch of +150 or more.

Betting Trend – 78% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

MLB – (907) MILWAUKEE at (908) ST. LOUIS   8:15 ET  FSWI, FSMW (side and total)

These Central Division rivals have already split four games, but the betting public expects St. Louis to take command tonight near The Arch. Oddsmakers sent the Cardinals out at -155 and they have flown to -175 over Milwaukee. The Carlos Martinez vs. Brent Suter matchup looks like a mismatch, at least on a computer screen. With both offenses still waiting to fire in 2018, the total has tumbled from 8 to 7.5. I concur Martinez is the better pitcher and will back the Redbirds. I’m not thrilled with the lower total and will just lean Under.

Betting Trend – 81% backing St. Louis, 83% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis wins, lean Under

MLB – (923) HOUSTON at (924) MINNESOTA  8:10 ET  ATTH, FSNO

World Series champion Houston has risen 20 cents to -155 over Minnesota, which is about as surprising as tonight Yankees/Red Sox game being nationally televised. The Astros have started 9-2 and are thought to have a real chance to repeat as champs. In spite of the ‘Stros excellence, my Line Tracker system gives the Twinkies a 60% chance to win and I will side with the underdog.

Betting Trend – 81% backing Houston

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Minnesota

MLB  – (927) OAKLAND at (928) L.A. DODGERS  10:10 ET  CSCA, SNLA (side and total)

The A’s look very much like the team I saw in spring training and are 4-7. The Dodgers at 3-6 are playing like a club that thought they were going to win the World Series last fall. So what do you in this Cali confrontation? Those making large wagers have driven the Dodgers down 30 cents to -125. Why, it’s like the Red Lobster combo platter. Oakland’s Sean Manaea has pitched well early and Hyun-Jin Ryu has thrown like someone who has spent a lot of time on the DL in recent years. In addition, the total has skyrocketed from 7.5 to 8.5. The Dodgers at this price at home are too good to pass up, but with L.A. 15-4 UNDER after blowing a save, I’ll go against the line movement.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Los Angeles, 75% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Los Angeles wins, Lean Under

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 50-47 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 23-31-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 73-76-3 ATS

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