Our line moves report keeps moving forward and is now at Week 7. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week.
NFL – (457) BALTIMORE at (458) MINNESOTA 1:00 ET CBS
One week after their best offensive showing, Baltimore did not manage 300 yards against Chicago at home and lost. Honestly, the Ravens look like another .500 club and they have been shifted from +4.5 to +5.5 in visiting the Twin Cities. Minnesota’s No.5 defense is more than capable of shutting down the Ravens and are 16-5 ATS at home since 2015. Update – No movement on this side with customers satisfied with 5.5. I like the Vikes.
Betting Trend – Was 88% backing Minnesota, now 65%
Doug’s VPID Take – Minnesota covers
NFL – (463) CAROLINA at (464) CHICAGO 1:00 ET FOX *New*
Carolina has fallen from -4 to -3 despite the fact they are 3-0 SU and ATS on the road. However, Chicago has been better than most thought they be and it is flat out impossible baby (quick Dick Vitale for you with college hoops coming) to ignore the Bears are 8-1 ATS when catching seven or fewer points at home. At three digits and the Panthers coming in off a loss, I will give the three.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Carolina
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Carolina
NFL – (465) NEW ORLEANS at (466) GREEN BAY 1:00 ET FOX
In what is considered a – quarterback’s league – all you need to know about his NFC encounter is Drew Brees vs. Brett Hundley. Others are thinking the same thing and New Orleans is up from -4.5 to -6. Making matters worse is all the other injuries Green Bay has and they no longer have guy with the ball in his hands to find a way to win. Update – I absolutely did not expect this to happen. Green Bay’s Rodgers-less Packers have been walked back to +4 from +6. Astonishing. If the rest of the Pack’s team was not so beat up, might have considered, but cannot and will go Saints.
Betting Trend – 65% still backing New Orleans
Doug’s VPID Take – New Orleans covers
NFL – (467) ARIZONA vs. (468) L.A. RAMS 1:00 ET FOX *New*
The total in this NFC West conflict has fallen two points to 45.5. I have no particular strong feeling on this but I do know Arizona got to London on Tuesday and Los Angeles not until Friday, with lots of Todd Gurley quotes whining about the trip. Will a young Rams team be distracted, that could be the case. The Cardinals do have strong Over tendencies, but I’m inclined to think 24-20 final and will back the UNDER.
Betting Trend – 61% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (471) SEATTLE at (472) N.Y. GIANTS 4:25 ET CBS (side and total)
The New York Giants after not having many betting friends in Denver, have quite a few more at home against Seattle. Big Blue was released at +7 and have slid to +6 or +5.5 depending on the sportsbook. In spite of Eli Manning having limited weapons to use on offense, the total has spiked like Velvetta cheese prices from 39 to 40.5 with apparent sharp money (see betting trend) Not sure I agree with totals line move, but will not discount Seattle sinking since they are among the poorest wagers in October for years. Update – Not sure exactly what I am missing with Seattle now down to -4. The total has also been altered and go backwards a point to 39.5. The Giants still have no offense and the Seahawks are off a bye. Hawks and Under.
Betting Trend – Was 68% backing Seattle and 95% on Under, now 55% and 75% respectively
Doug’s VPID Take – Seattle covers and Under
NFL – (473) DENVER at (474) L.A. CHARGERS 4:25 ET CBS (side and total)
Just a week ago Denver was certainly a three-point road favorite. That has all changed with Broncos off dreadful defeat and the Chargers seeking a three-game winning streak. Denver opened at -1.5 and has been turned around to +1.5. The Broncos are averaging under 19 PPG with Trevor Siemian on the road since last year, yet do you trust the Chargers at home? On Tuesday night the total began to drift downward from 43.5 to 41.5. The average score of Denver game this season is 41 points and the Chargers is 40.1. Update – This game is where I thought it land based on the movement and is now a Pick. The total has continued to erode, now sitting at 40.5. I have Broncos bouncing back, but like the OVER since both quarterbacks do make mistakes which could lead to easy points.
Betting Trend – Was 69% backing Denver, 72% still on Under, now 74%
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Denver and Over
NFL – (475) ATLANTA at (476) NEW ENGLAND 8:30 ET NBC (side and total)
The matchup speaks for itself based on the Super Bowl. However, these are different clubs from eight months later. New England has not been dominant and has been lowered from -4.5 to -3.5 and the total has jumped from 53.5 to 55. With Atlanta 12-0 OVER when total is 49.5 or higher, that looks right, just not sure about revenge off two bad homes losses for Falcons. Update – The total keeps rising like my blood pressure watching these games, now up to 56.5. The side is down to a field goal. The total is getting up there and I will drop this to a lean on Over and the same with the Pats.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Atlanta, 84% on Over, now 64% and 75% respectively
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans New England and Over
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (9-9 ATS) in order: Titans, Broncos and Panthers
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (11-7 ATS) in order: Cowboys/Niners OVER, Redskins/Eagles OVER and Bucs/Bills OVER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 226-229-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 146-114-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 360-310 -14 ATS