VPID Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Nov. 23-24

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Here are the latest line moves for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here Friday and save me a turkey leg.

NFL – Thursday –  (107) MINNESOTA at (108) DETROIT  12:30  ET  FOX

Last chance for Detroit to stay in the NFC North race since a Minnesota victory gives them a three-game lead with five to play. Those betting football are siding with the Vikings on Thanksgiving and fluffed them up like mashed potatoes from a Pick to -3. While we expect great effort from the Lions, the Vikes are 13-2 ATS off two or more wins.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Minnesota

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Minnesota covers

NFL – Thursday –  (109) L.A. CHARGERS at (110) DALLAS  4:30  ET  CBS

After being laid out by Philadelphia, Dallas was sent out as just a one-point home favorite over the Chargers. As low as that seemed, it still was not enough to satisfy the appetite of NFL bettors who have flipped the Bolts to -1.5. The Cowboys problems go beyond Ezekiel Elliott not playing, with weaknesses in the offensive line and a defense with too many holes. The Chargers beat up Buffalo, yet if the game is as close as the spread suggests, the Bolts have a horrible recent history in tight contests. I’m not betting this game but will lean with L.A. South because they have fewer issues at the moment.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Los Angeles

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Los Angeles South

NFL – Thursday –  (113) MISSISSIPPI at (114) MISS. STATE  7:30  ET  ESPN

In the Egg Bowl, the Bulldogs have waddled from -17 to -14.5. There is no doubt in my mind Mississippi State is the better team and because they can run the ball and Mississippi cannot stop it, the physical edge goes to the home team. The Rebels do have backdoor potential, which is why I will wait and see if I can find a -14, knowing I can always get a -15 with Mississippi State and there fine defense. Almost forget, Ole Miss is being outscored by 23 PPG on the road this year.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Mississippi

Doug’s VPID Take Lean Mississippi State

CFB – Friday –  (117) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (118) TOLEDO  11:30am ET  ESPNU

Toledo just needs a victory to advance to MAC championship and has many bettors who think that will happen, as the Rockets have soared from -12 to -14. Western Michigan’s strong running could expose Toledo’s defensive weakness, however, the Rockets are 5-0 SU at home this season, winning by 15.8 points a game.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Toledo

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Toledo

CFB –  Friday –  (127) NEW MEXICO at (128) SAN DIEGO STATE   3:30 ET  CBSSN

Whew, San Diego State climbing two points to -20.5 is a nasty. The Aztecs are back to pounding bad MWC teams and are 3-0 SU and ATS of late. New Mexico, they are kaput on a six-game losing streak and are 1-5 ATS. Yet, you cannot ignore the boys from the Land of Enchantment are 10-1 ATS at SoCal. I’ll will side with the Aztecs and keep my fingers crossed they want to punish the Lobos.

Betting Trend – 96% backing San Diego State

Doug’s VPID TakeLean San Diego State

CFB –  Friday –  (129) NAVY at (130) HOUSTON   12:00 ET  ESPN

A pair of 6-4 AAC squads collide and the money is following Navy in spite of the fact they have lost four of their last five. The Midshipmen have sunk from +6.5 to +4.5 at Houston. The Cougars inconsistencies are worrisome, beating Arizona and then undefeated South Florida and losing as favorites to Tulsa and Tulane. With the Middies a solid 21-10 ATS as road underdogs, they get the call.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Navy

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Navy

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 260-269-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 168-137-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 412-372 -14 ATS

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