Today we cover all the biggest line moves for Week 14 in the NFL, along with the Army/Navy battle. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (17-11-1 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here next week.
CFB – Saturday – (103) ARMY vs. (104) NAVY 3:00 ET CBS
With the Army finally winning last year and ending long losing streak, the competitive nature is back in the contest. However, what football bettors are interested in is the total, which has fallen dramatically from 51 to 46.5. The large drop is not a surprise since the UNDER is 10-0 the last decade. This does make sense as the teams are mirror images of one another and they know how to defend the opposing offense. Update – The total has dipped again to 46 and hard to think it is wrong even if it might be.
Betting Trend – Was 70% backing Under, now 54%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (107) CHICAGO at (108) CINCINNATI 1:00 ET FOX *New*
The total on this Midwestern affair was sent from 37 to 38.5. Cannot find good reasons as to why because the average score for each team comes in below that adjusted number. This is not say I think it is wrong, just surprised it moved at all. I don’t have strong feeling either way, but I will side with the OVER because road teams like the Bears who are scoring 17 or less PPG, after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games are 28-7 OVER.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NFL – (115) MINNESOTA at (116) CAROLINA 1:00 ET FOX (side and total)
Minnesota has played virtually as stable as New England, which is why those betting football have no problem backing the Vikings even on the road, pushing them from -1 to -2.5. Being a more defensive and ball control squad outfit, Minnesota is likely driver for total dipping a point to 41. It seem risky to go against Carolina at home off a loss, yet the Vikings are very steady and 6-0 UNDER off a road win. Update – The side or total has not moved one iota. My initial thought was Minnesota, but in the last few weeks in the games between top clubs, the home team keeps winning, thus, in this case I will back Carolina and UNDER.
Betting Trend – Was 61% backing Minnesota and 65% on Over, now 53% and 44% respectively
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Carolina and Under
NFL – (119) SAN FRANCISCO at (120) HOUSTON 1:00 ET FOX *New total*
An eyebrow or two was probably raised when Houston went from -1 to -3 against San Francisco. The 49ers have won two of three, while the Texans are 1-5 SU recently (3-3 ATS) and Houston’s injuries continue to mount. The other perspective is this, can you imagine the Niners winning consecutive road games? That is where it really becomes tricky to back San Fran. Update – Houston has gone a half point backwards to -2.5 in this nonconference clash, but the total has sprung ahead from 43 to 44.5. I will stick with my Texans pick, which now has better value and two of my scoring models have the OVER.
Betting Trend – Was 82% backing Houston, now 66% and 80% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Houston and Over
NFL – (121) WASHINGTON at (122) L.A. CHARGERS 4:05 ET CBS
The Carson Chargers are playing like they could win their division, on a major 6-2 SU and ATS roll. The Bolts were released as touchdown favorites, but have been backed down to -6 point choice. Washington is unpredictable, as Kirk Cousins can get hot as a passer, which could alter game dynamics. The question becomes can you trust the Redskins after awful showing at Dallas? At adjusted price, the value is with Chargers. Update – The wagering markets are quite satisfied with the Chargers at -6 and so am I.
Betting Trend – Was 60% backing L.A. South, now 44%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean L.A. South
NFL – (123) N.Y. JETS at (124) DENVER 4:05 ET CBS
These matchups with bad teams are tough to predict. With Denver playing so dreadful on a eight-game losing streak (0-8 ATS), the Broncos have been flipped from -1 to +1 home underdogs against the Jets. It is easy to understand why since New York is still trying, while Denver looks to have packed in the season already. The Broncos have committed 21 turnovers in this atrocious stretch and this seems to be key to eventual outcome. Fingers crossed on home team. Update – The Jets have held steady all week and there is a lot of wise guy action on them also. I will stick to my guns on Denver and believe they will end this horrendous slump.
Betting Trend – 92% backing N.Y. Jets, now 83%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Denver
NFL – (127) PHILADELPHIA at (128) L.A. RAMS 4:25 ET FOX *New total*
With Philadelphia falling in Seattle, the money trail in going against the Eagles and they have gone up from +1 to 2.5 in Los Angeles. This might be an overreaction to Philadelphia losing for just a second time and while turnovers helped dictate the outcome, the Eagles had a +115 yardage edge in the contest. The Rams are young, talented and exciting and so are the Eagles and I would not recommend giving up on them just yet. Update – A modest buyback on Rams to -2, but the total has really come down from 51 to 48.5. I think Philly is the play here as they rebound from last week and I will take the OVER as the Eagles are 6-0 OVER after a loss by 14 or more.
Betting Trend – Was 74% backing Philadelphia, now 78% and 51% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Philadelphia covers and Over
NFL – (129) DALLAS at (130) N.Y. GIANTS 1:00 ET FOX
Is New York dipping a point to +5 a reflection of Ben McAdoo being fired? Possibly, but it is also saying Eli Manning gives the Giants a better chance to win than Geno Smith. We all understand the G-Men stink and are a rotten team, yet when you factor in coaching change, Manning unquestionably will be laser-focused and it is home game against Dallas, anything less than New York’s best effort would be a stunner. Update – The Cowboys keeping sinking in the saddle, now down all the way to -3.5. As crazy as that seems, I look for large Giants effort.
Betting Trend – Was 71% backing Dallas, now 51%
Doug’s VPID Take – New York covers
NFL – Monday – (133) NEW ENGLAND at (134) MIAMI 8:30 ET ESPN (side and total)
Both the side and total moved in this Monday night clash, with one more meaningful than the other. The total has crumbled from 48.5 to 47 and New England is down a digit to -11. The Patriots adjustment seems inconsequential, as typically a -12 to -11 seldom would matter and it seems driven by Rob Gronkowski’s suspension. The sinking total is also a reflection the New England offense has not quite as sharp and is second in the league in field goal attempts. Update – About 40 percent of sportsbooks have raised the Patriots back to -11.5, with rest at -11. The total has come back a half a point to 47.5. Not sure how you go against New England here, with how much better there defense is playing. I liked the Under on Monday and will stick with it.
Betting Trend – Was 88% backing New England and 95% on Under, now 73% and 93%
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans New England and Under
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (23-16 ATS) in order: Jets, Chiefs and Seahawks
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (21-18 ATS) in order: Redskins/Chargers OVER, Patriots/Dolphins UNDER and Cowboys/Giants OVER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 285-280-11 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 176-140-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 440-392 -15 ATS