VPID Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Dec. 22-26


First, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. This time we are going football heavy for line moves, looking at the bowl games and the NFL. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (40-27-2 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here next week.

BOWLS – (219) CENT. MICHIGAN vs. (220) WYOMING 4:00 ET  ESPN

When oddsmakers released the spread on this game, there was a question if Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen was going to play and the game was sent out as a Pick. With practice having resumed, reports have Allen at least 90 percent healthy from should injury and the Cowboys saddle and odds have been adjusted to -3. The biggest factor in this matchup, turnovers, with Central Michigan No.1 nationally in forcing them with 31 and Wyoming tied for second with 30. I prefer the way the Chippewas ended the season at 5-0 SU and ATS.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Central Michigan

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Central Michigan

BOWLS – Dec. 23rd  (221) TEXAS TECH vs. (222) SOUTH FLORIDA  12:00 ET  ESPN

Nothing happened early, but as we got closer to game time, the total on Birmingham Bowl began to climb. The early release of 64.5 has given way to 66. While I can make a case for a higher score, in reviewing all the numbers, I keep coming up at 60 to 63 points, which makes this an UNDER play for me.

Betting Trend – 77% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NFL – (109) L.A. RAMS at (110) TENNESSEE  1:00 ET  FOX

The total on this tilt has fallen from 49 to 47. This has to do with an improving L.A. North defense going up against a struggling Marcus Mariota-led offense. Both teams are in must-win situations for what they need for the postseason, yet you still have wonder about the Rams explosiveness. I will agree with the line movement, with a touch of trepidation.

Betting Trend – 91% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NFL – (117) DENVER at (118) WASHINGTON  1:00 ET  CBS

In reading up on this nonconference clash, one of the stories from both teams perspective is will John Elway target Kirk Cousins as his quarterback for next season? This is an interesting storyline on many levels. Another aspect of this matchup is the total falling from 42 to 40.5. This has potential with the Broncos defense playing with more vigor and the Washington offense averaging 16.7 PPG the last month. Plus, let not forget Denver averages 15.1 PPG on the road.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NFL – (119) MIAMI at (120) KANSAS CITY  1:00 ET  CBS

The total on this AFC clash is down from 45 to 43.5. Reason No. 1 is, temperatures are excepted to be right at the freezing mark. Reason No.2, the Chiefs are 8-0 UNDER  at home when the total is between 42.5 and 45 points. Plus, after Andy Reid’s squad has rung up 25 or more points in back to back outings, they again are 8-0 UNDER.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under


Jacksonville can wrap up AFC South by beating San Francisco. For starters, that sentence would have never been thought of back in August. Next, it really gets strange as the Jaguars are slipping as favorites from -5.5 to -4.5 against the Niners, who are on unimaginable three-game winning streak. There is nothing fluky about Jacksonville, yet at the same time the 49ers are playing solid football. Think about this; a Blake Bortles vs. Jimmy Garopollo matchup actually matters!

Betting Trend – 62% backing Jacksonville

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Jacksonville

BOWLS – DEC. 24 – (227) HOUSTON vs. (228) FRESNO STATE   8:30 ET  ESPN

Maybe the tropical breezes are supposed to relax the defenses, because the total shifting from 46 to 49 is more vexing than wearing a Hawaiian shirt and plaid shorts. Fresno State has been an excellent defensive squad all year. Houston will have speed edges that might be the difference in making big plays, yet hesitant to go that direction at this time.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NFL – DEC. 25 – (129) PITTSBURGH at (130) HOUSTON  4:30  ET  NBC

With Houston having real limitations on offense, the general feeling must be Pittsburgh is going to have success scoring on the Texans, with the total going up from 44 to 46 points. I’m not going to support this move with the Steelers 6-0-1 UNDER on the road and I have system that also back a lower score with at a 80 percent rate.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

BOWLS – DEC. 26 – (229) UTAH vs. (230) WEST VIRGINIA  1:30 ET  ESPN

Have to admit, the side and total on this bowl game has me perplexed. It was already known West Virginia quarterback Will Grier was ‘out’, thus, what forces are pushing Utah from -4.5 to -7 (now -6.5) and causing the total to lift from 54 to 56.5? One can make a stronger case for the total going up, given each team’s track record and potential, but the side, tough call.

Betting Trend – 83% backing West Virginia and 82% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Over and Utah


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 296-297-12 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 182-148-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 458-415 -15 ATS


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