Football line moves and a shipload of free picks for this weekend! Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (28-17-1 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here next week.
BOWLS – (201) NORTH TEXAS vs. (202) TROY 1:00 ET ESPN *New*
As the New Orleans bowl approached, bettors took a second look at both teams and saw Troy plays defense and North Texas has problems stopping the opposition. The Mean Green has a very good passing offense, but the Trojans can rush the passer and are disruptive. That is why Troy was tossed from -5.5 to -7.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Troy
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Troy
BOWLS – (202) GEORGIA STATE vs. (202) WESTERN KENTUCKY 2:30 ET CBSSN *New*
In the second bowl game of the day, the total went up three points in the Cure Bowl to 53.5. This would suggest either those betting football feel Western Kentucky’s offense will click more than usual and find the end zone. Or they are convinced the Georgia State quarterback will be more accurate than normal and Panthers offense does better than score a mere 19.7 PPG. Since neither defense is overwhelming, expecting to see one more field goal is not that big a deal.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
BOWLS – (205) OREGON vs. (206) BOISE STATE 3:30 ET ABC
Oregon might have lost their head coach, but they have QB Justin Herbert back, which probably matters more. With Hebert at the controls, The Ducks offense was outstanding and this is leading factor why Oregon has been taken from -5 to -7.5. The other aspect is though Boise State defense has good numbers, they gave points a lot of points to faster clubs. Update – Mostly sharp money has driven Boise State back to +7 and the news RB Royce Freeman decided this week to call it a career at Oregon. Reports have Boise State having excellent practices and I snap up the +7.
Betting Trend – Was 63% backing Oregon, now 58%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Boise State
BOWLS – (207) MARSHALL vs. (208) COLORADO STATE 4:30 ET ESPN
With the average score of Marshall game just over 45 points, it would seem oddmakers are thinking Colorado State will control the pace and elevated the total from 55 to 58. The normal score of a Rams contest is 61.1 PPG, though that dips rather dramatically when they are not home to 46.1 PPG. This should be lower scoring. Update – This total in New Mexico Bowl has stayed locked in at 58, but as I said the other day, I see fewer points scored.
Betting Trend – Was 75% backing Over, now 65%
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
BOWLS – (209) MID. TENNESSEE STATE vs. (210) ARKANSAS STATE 8:00 ET ESPN
This bowl battle features the largest totals move of all, up a whopping five points to 62.5. With QB Brent Stockstill back, the Middle Tennessee State offense is completely different and they can score on anyone. It is a given Arkansas State will pile up the points since they are averaging nearly 40 a contest. Update – After being pounded early, this total has slid back to 61.5 and might fall further. Be patient or take OVER now.
Betting Trend – Was 94% backing Over, now 87%
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NFL – Saturday – (303) CHICAGO at (304) DETROIT 4:30 ET NFLN
With the worst running game in the NFL, Detroit has to rely on Matthew Stafford to find ways to win. The Lions remain in the chase for a Wild Card spot, but they are hardly an impressive bunch, with a +0.7 point winning differential and being +1.1 at home. With a 2-4 SU and ATS in their own building, Detroit has slipped from -7 to -5.5 over rival Chicago. With nothing to lose, the Bears could be dangerous. Update – A decided lack of trust in the Lions, as their roar has been all but silenced, now down to -5 and roughly 30 percent of sportsbooks at -4.5. Maybe I’ll be wrong, but just not sold on Chicago in this spot.
Betting Trend – Was 55% backing Detroit, now 61%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Detroit
NFL – Saturday – (305) L.A. CHARGERS at (306) KANSAS CITY 8:25 ET NFLN
With the Chargers 7-2 SU and ATS since disastrous 0-4 start, they have the full backing of those betting football and have been flipped from +1 to -1.5 at Kansas City. While L.A. South is unquestionably playing better than the Chiefs, this will still require leap of faith to back the Bolts at this price since they have lost seven straight to K.C. If the Chiefs can keep running game going they could win, but secondary has to contain Philip Rivers. Update – In the last couple days, seen a weakening of support for the Chargers, now listed at -1 or a Pick. I’ll back better team.
Betting Trend – Was 58% backing L.A. South, now 53%
Doug’s VPID Take – L.A. South covers
NFL – (315) HOUSTON at (316) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS
Put together Jacksonville’s defense, which leads the league in points allowed at 15.5 per game, against Houston club that only scored 16 points at home in setback to San Francisco, with third-string quarterback T.J. Yates playing most of that contest and the starter this week and you have a sinking total from 40 to 39. The Jaguars are off unusual 30-point back to back contests and are 11-1 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games in their history. Update – More and more questions are arising about how the Texans will tally many points against Jacksonville’s defense and total tumbled again to 38.
Betting Trend – Was 54% backing Under, new 62%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (319) ARIZONA at (320) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET FOX *New Total*
The sense one has is Arizona is still playing on this season, while Washington, at least the last couple weeks, has given up the ghost. I’m not the only one thinking this either, as the Redskins have slide from -5.5 to -4.5 or even -4 point favorites. All the Washington injuries seem to have taken a physical toll, which has spilled into the mental side. That is not to say backing the Cardinals does not come without baggage, since they are 1-5 ATS this season on the road. Update – Washington has settled at -4 at since Thursday. The other news has seen the total shift from 44 to 41.5. The aforementioned Redskins injuries are cause for concern and the Cardinals have limitations crossing the goal line with regularity.
Betting Trend – Was 61% backing Arizona, now 66% on Washington and 83% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Arizona and Under
NFL – (321) BALTIMORE at (322) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
Though Baltimore has won four previous visits to Cleveland and is 3-1 ATS, not one outcome has been by more six points. With this, the Ravens have been lowered from -9 to -7 in the Browns final home game of the season. Cleveland should have beaten Green Bay last week and is looking to avoid 0-8 record at home for the first time since becoming Cleveland 2.0 and rejoining NFL in 1999. Update – Ravens have been steady at adjusted price of -7, yet do not be surprised if this goes back up on Sunday.
Betting Trend – Was 81% backing Cleveland, now 62%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Baltimore
NFL – (323) L.A. RAMS at (324) SEATTLE 4:05 ET FOX
Seattle’s pedigree and playing before the ’12th Man’ has football bettors giving them the benefit of the doubt, as the Seahawks have been switched from +1.5 to -1.5 point choice over the visiting Rams. Seattle needs a victory, because a season sweep give them the tiebreaker if we reach that point by the end of the year. Taking all aspects into account, the Rams are probably better overall team, but can they contain Russell Wilson? Update – Heavy hit on Rams early, then a torrent of sharp Seattle cash and they are now a -2.5 point pick. Bettors backing the big game experience, I concur.
Betting Trend – Was 70% backing Seattle, now 57%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Seattle
NFL – (327) TENNESSEE at (328) SAN FRANCISCO 4:25 ET CBS
In spite of San Francisco’s record compared to Tennessee’s, what oddsmakers and sports bettors appear to be really saying after watching Jimmy Garapollo and Marcus Mariota play quarterback the last couple weeks is that the 49ers quarterback is better. Three weeks ago the Niners would have not been made a one-point favorite over the Titans and the wagering masses would not have pushed them to -2. Tennessee is 5-14 ATS on the road of late, but do they take a stand this week and play to talent level? Update – The strong early position on the 49ers is wobbly, back to original starting point of -1. Playing a hunch Tennessee comes to play.
Betting Trend – Was 61% backing San Francisco, now 38%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Tennessee
NFL – (329) DALLAS at (330) OAKLAND 8:30 ET NBC
With Oakland providing another listless effort in being thumped by Kansas City, bettors are tired of this act and are supporting Dallas, who arrives in Oak-Town off a couple of imposing wins. The Cowboys are riding higher in the saddle being moved from a Pick to -3, and should be able to move the ball against Raiders defense that has not done the job all season. Oakland is 10-23 ATS when a home underdog of three or less. Update – Zero movement on the Cowboys being made favorites and I support what previously happened.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Dallas, now 68%
Doug’s VPID Take – Dallas covers
NFL – Monday – (331) ATLANTA at (332) TAMPA BAY 8:30 ET ESPN
Atlanta has been moved a point from -5 to -6 at Tampa Bay. This should be a no-brainer for the Falcons, however, they have Carolina and New Orleans to close the season, making focus a concern. And what about the Buccaneers, do they put aside reported in-fighting and galvanize for one big home effort, or rollover like Rover? The Bucs are 0-6 ATS as dogs this season. Update – About 20 percent of books are up to 6.5, thus if you like the Dirty Birds like I do, act now.
Betting Trend – Was 91% backing Atlanta, now 90%
Doug’s VPID Take – Atlanta covers
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (24-18 ATS) in order: Falcons, Vikings and Patriots
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (22-20 ATS) in order: Packers/Panthers OVER, Falcons/Bucs OVER and Jets/Saints OVER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 291-286-11 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 178-143-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 446-403 -15 ATS