VPID Football Line Moves, Betting Trends and Free Picks for Sept. 20-21


We have the usual for line moves, a look at NFL action and breaking down the Thursday night football games. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (254-208) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday

NFL – Thursday –  (301) L.A. RAMS at (302) SAN FRANCISCO  8:25 ET  NFLN

It is a given the 49ers are going to have trouble scoring, but what people are paying attention to on the totals side is there defense has been good in holding a pair of fair offensive teams to 17.5 PPG. The total has fallen from 42 to 39.5, the UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings and I have to agree.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

CFB – Thursday (303) TEMPLE at (304) SOUTH FLORIDA  7:30 ET  ESPN  (side and total)

South Florida and the total are blowing up like somebody who quit Weight Watchers. The Bulls have run from -17.5 to -20.5 and the total has scampered from 58.5 to 63. After being blasted by Notre Dame and barely defeating Villanova and UMass, Temple has obviously slipped and their speed on defense has evaporated. Though both line moves are rather large, they appear to be accurate. Update: The total has remained steadfast, with USF backed up to -19.5. As stated, I generally agree with both line moves.

Betting Trend – 75% backing South Florida and 84% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans South Florida and Over


Football bettors, just could not believe their eyes, Cleveland a -2.5 point road favorite and they have been lowered to -1 or a Pick at Indianapolis. The last time the Browns were in this role was 23 away games ago in 2014 (@ Jacksonville). While the oddsmakers might be right from talent perspective, typically teams in this spot do not measure up and beat themselves.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Indianapolis

NFL – (465) PITTSBURGH at (466) CHICAGO  1:00 ET  CBS

The Pittsburgh offense is not in sync yet and the Chicago offense is averaging 12 PPG after two weeks. With this, the total has sunk two points to 44. It is rather easy to make a case for this with the Steelers 10-2 UNDER as a road favorite the last three seasons and the Bears 29-13 UNDER off a road loss by 14 points or more.

Betting Trend – 89% backing Under

NFL – (469) DENVER at (470) BUFFALO  1:00 ET  CBS

Two impressive Denver wins has those betting football jumping on the bandwagon and the Broncos have been elevated from -1 to -3. Why this makes sense is not just the difference in Denver defense and Buffalo’s lack of playmakers, but the Broncos offense being able to run the ball. That will be the deciding factor in the Bills coming up short.

Betting Trend – 91% backing Denver

NFL – (473) NEW ORLEANS at (474) CAROLINA  1:00 ET  FOX

Carolina’s defense is back to imposing as they are getting better effort up front and their still youthful secondary has grown up. As for the Panthers lack of offense, it sure looks like Cam Newton is still going through training camp and everything is far from cohesive and the loss of TE Greg Olson is not going to make Carolina more of a scoring machine. With this, the total fell from 49 to 47, even with how completely pathetic the New Orleans defense has played.

Betting Trend – 93% backing Under

NFL – (481) SEATTLE at (482) TENNESSEE  4:05 ET  FOX

With one offensive touchdown scored and only two allowed, it is not a stretch to consider Seattle to be involved in a lower scoring conflict. With this the total has dipped from 44 to 42.5. One could make the case for contrarian thinking in a situation like this, unfortunately, at least presently, key Tennessee offensive threats are dealing with hamstring issues, which could limit them.

Betting Trend – 89% backing Under

NFL – (483) KANSAS CITY at (484) L.A. CHARGERS  4:25 ET  CBS

Evidently the Chargers rookie kicker has his confidence back after missing two crucial field goals, as the total in this AFC West clash is up from 45.5 to 47.5. OK, maybe Younghoe Koo has nothing to do with, as the Chiefs offense has been scintillating in average 34.5 PPG after two weeks. At this time, I am not sure what is the right play, but I do know since 2010 whatever the Game 1 total ended up being, Over or Under, the second matchup was precisely the same.

Betting Trend – 94% backing Over


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 189-198-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 136-101-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 307-270-14 ATS


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