This past week, betting trends were 12-8 and the choice on bet percentages were 14-6! Today we dive into the early action in college football for line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (240-199) to see what we are thinking.
CFB – (143) KANSAS at (144) OHIO U. 12:00 ET ESPNU
Though both teams have played nothing but Over’s this season, the total has plummeted from 59 to 52. Ohio U. does have perimeter players that might not see the field again, which could explain the lion’s share of the drop. Even with this, these defenses can be scored upon and from this perspective, would rather go high than low at 52 points.
Betting Trend – 76% on Over
CFB – (153) WISCONSIN at (154) BYU 3:30 ET ABC
BYU does not look good and in facing a third straight quality team, the sense is the Cougars are overmatched and will not score enough on Wisconsin or contain their offense. This explains the Badgers jumping from -13 to -17. The data is available to back Wisconsin, just not certain about this many points for them to cover.
Betting Trend – 62% on Wisconsin
CFB – (157) NORTH TEXAS at (158) IOWA 3:30 ET ESPN2
If this was 10 or more years ago, Iowa would be rising favorite, not one dipping from -24 to -21.5. It used to be the Hawkeyes were gold at home in these spots, not anymore and Iowa is only 13-24 ATS at home after two or more consecutive straight up wins. Plus, they have Penn State on deck in Iowa City.
Betting Trend – 68% on Iowa
CFB – (171) ARMY at (172) OHIO STATE 4:30 ET FOX
Probably not going to be a whole lot of excitement surrounding this contest in Columbus. At least the Ohio State secondary will see it’s 130th ranked pass defense ranking improve against Army’s option attack. The total is up two points to 53 and the Buckeyes surpass it if they have the ground game working and can fix the offense.
Betting Trend – 60% on Over
CFB – (173) OREGON STATE at (174) WASHINGTON STATE 5:30 ET PAC-12N
Oregon State has gotten mauled twice and beaten Portland State by three as 26.5 point favorites. The Beavers appear to be the worst club in the Pac-12 and though Washington State was fortunate to win last week in OT vs. Boise State, Oregon State has blown up from +17 to +21.5. The Beavers are slow-starting 12-27 ATS on the September road.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Washington State
CFB – (181) IDAHO at (182) WESTERN MICHIGAN 7:00 ET ESPN3
UNLV loses to Howard, Idaho losses to UNLV by 26 points, thus, naturally the Vandals go from +16.5 to +20 at Western Michigan. The Broncos are not the same team as a year ago and offensively have stumbled against better competition. This is opportunity for Western Mich. to find running game and have passing offense click.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Western Michigan
CFB – (459) KANSAS STATE at (460) VANDERBILT 7:30 ET ESPNU
Though the competition has not been stellar for either team, they have combined to permit only 36 total points this season, leading to the total to slip from 50.5 to 48.5. While on the surface this might be logical, each team has an offense that can score and a final score of 27-24 is expected from this perspective.
Betting Trend – 81% on Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 180-191-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 132-98-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 291-264-14 ATS