Our attention on line moves goes to the NFL, with a dollop of Thursday college football tossed in. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (240-199) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday
NFL – Thursday – (101) HOUSTON at (102) CINCINNATI 8:25 ET NFLN
Both these AFC squads stunk it up last Sunday, but at least do not have much time to dwell on it. With Houston’s quarterback situation in turmoil already and having tight end and wide receiver injury problems, the Texans have jumped from +3 to +6.5 playing at Cincinnati. The Bengals have to solve offensive line issues and get Andy Dalton right. I thought Cincy was a strong play at -3, but not crazy about them at this price
Betting Trend – 71% backing Cincinnati
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cincinnati
CFB – Thursday – (103) NEW MEXICO at (104) BOISE STATE 8:00 ET ESPN
These MWC rivals are also off defeats and both in rather bizarre fashion. New Mexico was down 30-5 entering the fourth quarter at home and scored 23 straight points in coming up just short versus in-state rival New Mexico State as 7.5-point favorites. Boise State led Washington 31-10 in the last stanza, but mind-boggling errors and lost 47-44 in 3 OT’s. The Broncos opened at -16.5 and are down two points, largely due to 12-26 ATS mark on the blue turf. Lobos find a way to hang around.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Boise State
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New Mexico
NFL – (261) TENNESSEE at (262) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS
Jacksonville’s trouncing of Houston has not impressed everyone as they have been shoved from a Pick to +2 versus Tennessee. Conventional wisdom suggests the Titans still have the more complete team and should win, however, impossible to overlook they are 0-11-1 ATS on the AFC South road. Nonetheless, can you really trust the Jaguars also?
Betting Trend – 81% backing Tennessee
NFL – (263) CLEVELAND at (264) BALTIMORE 1:00 ET CBS (side and total)
Baltimore’s defense might end up being one the best in the NFL this season if they can stay healthy and that is the driving force behind the Ravens flying from -7 to -9 at home against Cleveland. Of course playing the Browns completes this equation and besides, Cleveland is 3-11 ATS after one or more consecutive defeats, losing by 11.9 points a game. The total has gone the other way, down from 41 to 39 because of the Ravens defense and presumed Browns inability to score.
Betting Trend – 61% backing Cleveland and 68% on Over
NFL – (267) NEW ENGLAND at (268) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET CBS
So much for New Orleans defense being improved after being torched for 470 yards on Monday night at Minnesota. This got the attention of those betting football with New England coming off a loss and the Saints have climbed from +4.5 to +6.5. It is given the Patriots will play better and they are 19-6 ATS after being outgained by 150 or more total yards in their previous game.
Betting Trend – 74% backing New England
NFL – (275) CHICAGO at (276) TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET FOX
Tampa Bay finally has their turn to play and they will face Chicago and they have the backing of those betting football, up from -5.5 to -7. What I wonder is as I talked about last week, favorites of a touchdown or more in their first game, since they are not typically a good wager and add in the Bears have already played a game.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Tampa Bay
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 180-191-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 132-98-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 291-264-14 ATS