VPID Football Line Moves, Betting Trends and Free Picks for Oct. 4-5


For Line Moves, let’s take a look at the NFL and betting trends, along with the Thursday football action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (274-236) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.

NFL – Thursday (303) NEW ENGLAND at (304) TAMPA BAY  8:25 ET  CBS/NFLN (side and total)

New England looks to be in a bit of trouble because of its defense and offensive line play, yet they still have the trust of pigskin players, who have elevated them from -4 to -5.5 at Tampa Bay. Not surprisingly, the total is also on the rise, up two points to 56. I will side with the higher score, but not sure about backing the Pats as favorites here and call for New England victory by 31-28.

Betting Trend – 71% backing New England and 76% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans Tampa Bay and Over

CFB – Wednesday (301) ARKANSAS STATE at (302) GEORGIA SOUTHERN   8:00 ET  ESPN2

Arkansas State was sent out at either -6.5 or -7. After a sleepy couple of days, the Red Wolves have added to their pack, now up to -9 at most books. Bettors are backing ASU’s Sun Belt pedigree and the fact Georgia Southern has continued to slide since 2014 when the joined the league and were a perfect 8-0 to become champions.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Arkansas State

Doug’s VPID TakeArkansas State covers

CFB – Thursday (305) LOUISVILLE at (306) N.C. STATE   8:00 ET  ESPN

On the surface N.C. State is positioned to have a better season, being stronger on defense and with an offense that can score. But Louisville has Lamar Jackson and there is nothing he cannot do and he has the backing of football bettors as the Cardinals flew from -1 to -4. The Wolfpack has lost three straight in series, but key number matters. Update: Louisville has been brought back to tricky -3.5, but the total is trending up from 63 to 65.5. This seems rather straightforward, if you prefer the Cardinals, take the Over, or if N.C. State pleases you palette, the Under is call.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Louisville and 50-50 on total

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans Louisville and Over

NFL – (451) L.A. CHARGERS at (452) N.Y. GIANTS  1:00 ET  CBS

These laboring 0-4 squads are finding points hard to come by, while allowing points with relative ease. The latter is why the total was pushed up a point to 44.5. With how bad these offense are and with no running games to speak, consider the Chargers are 11-3 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 the last three seasons.

Betting Trend – 85% backing Over

NFL – (455) N.Y. JETS at (456) CLEVELAND  1:00 ET  FOX

Those betting football were not taking the sportsbooks bait of Cleveland at -2 and have flipped the winless Browns to +1. Just the fact that it’s Cleveland is enough for the change, but then add in the hottest team in the NFL (OK maybe not the hottest), the New York Jets, who have two more games than most anticipated. The matchup has bad numbers either way. #treacherous

Betting Trend – 81% backing New York

NFL – (467) SEATTLE at (468) L.A. RAMS  4:05 ET  CBS

On Tuesday, the Rams jumped up from -1 to -2.5 and as I reported at another website, look for L.A. North to come back to at least original figure. That happened sooner than I anticipated because Los Angeles is already there. My reasoning was the Rams defense was the issue and instead this has lead to the total climbing from 46 to 47.5. My first thought was a lower score like the previous three battles have been, but you and I have to pay attention to Seattle being 9-2 OVER after gaining 450 or more yards.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Over

NFL – (469) BALTIMORE at (470) OAKLAND  4:05 ET  CBS

With Derek Carr out, oddsmakers made this game a Pick. Here is where it gets fascinating. Both Baltimore and Oakland have dropped two in a row and deserved to lose. With the Raiders having to go with Buffalo-bust EJ Manuel at QB, how could the Ravens be moved to +2.5.? Has Joe Flacco fallen that far in the public’s eye?

Betting Trend – 61% backing Baltimore

NFL – (471) GREEN BAY at (472) DALLAS  4:25 ET  FOX

In the so-called “America’s Game of the Week” the total has dipped from 53.5 to 52.5 or even 52 at some locales. Not seeing it happen thanks to offenses that move the ball and score points, against a pair of defenses that have not shown to be overwhelming since their opening game. In past 11 matchups in Dallas with these two clubs, the OVER is 10-1.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Over


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 205-212-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 144-110-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 334-289-14 ATS


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