For Line Moves, let’s look at what is going on in the NFL right now and give Thursday college football action to consider. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (15-8 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday
CFB – Thursday – (103) TOLEDO at (104) BALL STATE 7:00 ET ESPN3
With Toledo on the rise at 6-1 and Ball State fading into the sunset without their regular starting quarterback and at 2-5, the Rockets have soared from -23 to -26. This is a large number to back on Toledo as a road team, nevertheless, the Cardinals have 15 total points in past three games. Given where the teams are, its either Toledo or Pass. Update – A buyback to 24.5 or 25, nonetheless, still sticking with previous advice.
Betting Trend – Was 85% backing Toledo, now 91%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Toledo
CFB – Thursday – (107) EAST. MICHIGAN at (108) NORTHERN ILLINOIS 7:00 ET CBSSN
In another MAC attack matchup that starts feeding our weekday football feeding frenzy, the total in this game has surged from 42 to 46. Both these teams have been excellent defensively, with Eastern Mich. permitting 19.9 PPG and Northern Illinois even better at 16.7 PPG. Both offenses have scored fewer points than what opponents they have faced have allowed. Each team has shown UNDER tendencies in MAC play, thus, I will grab the 46 and take UNDER before is sinks.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (251) MINNESOTA vs. (252) CLEVELAND 9:30am ET NFLN
With the Browns fading to black yet again, football bettors see zero value in even backing Cleveland as a “bad underdog” and have pushed them from +7.5 to +9.5. This could well go higher, with the Browns 1-9 ATS against teams with a winning record, losing by a whopping 16 points a contest.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Minnesota
NFL – (253) CHICAGO at (254) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET FOX
The total sinking from 50 to 47.5 is threefold. It starts first with the Chicago defense being stronger than expected and the same goes for the New Orleans defense, playing close to preseason expectations. The other element is the Bears offense, which is very conservative with rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky. Looking the other way with the Saints 10-1 OVER taking on losing clubs.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Under
NFL – (255) ATLANTA at (256) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET FOX
Atlanta is scoring more than 12 points less than a year ago at 21.3 PPG and Jets, while being better than anticipated are at just 19.6 PPG. With this the total has dropped a digit from 47 to 46 and it is hard to argue with this since the Falcons are 9-1 UNDER after two or more consecutive losses against the spread the last three years.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Under
NFL – (257) CAROLINA at (258) TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET FOX (side and total)
Two stumbling squads out of the NFC South, both desperate for a victory. Tampa Bay was released as a mere one-point home favorite and been shoved to -2.5 over Carolina. Both clubs have been more inconsistent then anticipated and what they will do to right the ship is unknown. This division has crazy in-division angles like the Panthers 11-5 ATS at Tampa. In addition, the total has climbed from 44 to 45.5, which in theory should favor the Bucs playing in higher scoring game. Yet Carolina is 12-3 OVER on the October road.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Carolina and 88% on Over
NFL – (267) HOUSTON at (268) SEATTLE 4:05 ET CBS
When 43 points was sent out for total on this nonconference clash, my original thought was this has Over possibilities. I was not the only having this opinion and the total was lifted to 46. This now seems like overreaction because the Seattle defense has started to play to talent level and they are 6-0 UNDER after three or more consecutive wins.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Over
NFL – Monday – (273) DENVER at (274) KANSAS CITY 8:30 ET ESPN
Nothing early, but by Wednesday the total had slid from 44.5 to 43 for this AFC West skirmish. Since scoring 42 against Dallas, Denver has tallied the same number, but it has taken them four additional games to match it. Kansas City continues to keep the scoreboard lights blinking, but is 11-2 UNDER at home after the first month of the season since 2015. Plus, the Broncos are 6-0 UNDER after a road loss in same timeframe.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 235-239-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 148-116-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 373-320 -14 ATS