VPID Football Line Moves, Betting Trends and Free Picks for Oct.11-12

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Let’s look in on the line moves in the NFL for Week 6 and for good fun lone college football contest on Thursday out of the Sun Belt Conference. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (285-251) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.

CFB – Thursday (107) TEXAS STATE at (108) LOUISIANA  7:30 ET  ESPN

With Georgia Tech and Miami moved to Saturday because of Hurricane Irma, we get a double dose of Sun Belt football on prime time. The total in this SBC bash has collapsed from 58 to 55. Texas State is only scoring 14.5 PPG, yet, I think this total is incorrect. The Bobcats defense is not holding anyone in check in allowing 33.7 PPG and last week against a team similar to Louisiana, their main rival UL-Monroe, they tallied 27 points. The Ragin’ Cajuns are putting up 37 PPG and though they have played tougher schedule, against Monroe they gave up 56 points (43 in regulation) and 48 to S.E. Louisiana. I will back the OVER.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over

NFL – (251) CLEVELAND at (252) HOUSTON  1:00 ET  CBS

With Houston at home and missing two key defensive linemen, the total has been pounded like Harvey Weinstein in the media (deservedly) and moved from 44 to 47. With Cleveland allowing 24.8 PPG and the Texans at 26 PPG, the logic is in place and you also have to think about how well Deshaun Watson is playing at quarterback for the Texans. The wild card is the Browns anemic offense at 15.4 PPG.

Betting Trend – 97% backing Over

NFL – (255) MIAMI at (256) ATLANTA  1:00 ET  CBS

With Miami averaging absurd 10.3 PPG and Atlanta known as ‘hot’ offensive team at home, the Falcons have soared from -10 to -12 over the Dolphins. On the surface, nothing really to argue about when looking at what both teams bring to this clash, just remember Miami is a sneaky 27-14-2 ATS as non-division road underdogs.

Betting Trend – 80% backing Atlanta

NFL – (257) DETROIT at (258) NEW ORLEANS  1:00 ET  FOX

Matthew Stafford has not been awful, yet to this juncture is not playing at same level as past season for Detroit. Drew Brees has started to figure what he has on offense and the New Orleans defense has made exceptional strides the last couple weeks and the Saints are up from -3 to -4.5. This will probably come back close to original starting point.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Detroit

NFL – (265) L.A. RAMS at (266) JACKSONVILLE  4:05 ET  FOX  (side and total)

When was the last time Jacksonville was a rising favorite against a winning team? Not sure either, but we know it has not been recently, as the Jaguars have been pushed from a Pick to -2.5 versus the Rams. The game will swing on running game and defense and prefer the Jags in this spot. In addition, the total has also taken and tumble from 44 to 42.5. Is the higher score the right side with Jacksonville 14-5 OVER when the line is +3 to -3 the last three seasons?

Betting Trend – 52% backing L.A. and 59% on Under

NFL – (267) TAMPA BAY at (268) ARIZONA  4:05 ET  FOX

Arizona added another aging player to their roster in Adrian Peterson, but that was not a bad move since it is better than what they had at running back with David Johnson out. Bettors are not keen on the Cardinals geriatric key players and perfer the young guns from Tampa Bay, shifting the Bucs from a Pick to -2. Being 6-15 ATS since last year is not helping the Redbirds.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Tampa Bay

NFL – (273) N.Y. GIANTS at (274) DENVER  8:30 ET  NBC

The New York Giants still have 11 games to play, nonetheless, there season is over. With no running game and a flock of receivers injured, it does not seem likely they will score many points against Denver defense and they have shoved from +10 to +12. Still, this is big spread with a total of only 39.5. It seems obvious, but this could be very tricky.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Denver

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 218-220-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 144-112-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 346-302-14 ATS

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