We have our usual array of line moves and betting trends from the NFL along with that those same elements for Wednesday and Thursday and free picks. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (37-33 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday
CFB – Wednesday – (107) TOLEDO at (108) OHIO U. 7:00 ET ESPN2
For all intents and purposes, this looks like Part 1 of two in a MAC mini-series. After this contest, if both teams win out, they will collide again in MAC title game in a few weeks. In this confrontation, Ohio U. has slid from +6 to +3 point home underdogs. While Toledo has the more complete team, statistically, these teams are very similar. The Bobcats always get the most out of their talent thanks to coach Frank Solich, but at this price Toledo makes the most sense.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Toledo
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Toledo
CFB – Thursday – (117) NORTH CAROLINA at (118) PITTSBURGH 7:30 ET ESPN
This ACC total has collapsed, down from 53 to 49 points and here is why. Though North Carolina is a lousy defensive team, in ACC action they are averaging a crummy 16.5 PPG. With Pittsburgh playing a less experienced quarterback, they have veered towards running the ball and playing pretty solid defense and the average total score of their past three contests has been 46 points. While the value on the UNDER has been sucked dry, the Tar Heels are still 9-2 UNDER as an underdog since last year.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – Thursday – (111) SEATTLE at (112) ARIZONA 8:25 ET NBC
In this NFC West showdown, the total has crumbled from 43 to 41.5. To understand why, look at Seattle defense, which is holding opponents to 18.6 points a game. The Arizona offense has not exactly been scintillating at 17.4 PPG and now with Drew (Toss it up grabs) Stanton under center, he is not expected to make the situation better. The last nine years the total has been split on the season oddly enough. The adjusted number is hard, but this still looks like a lower scoring affair.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (251) MINNESOTA at (252) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET FOX
Washington has restored a little faith with upset at Seattle and they have been shifted from +2.5 to +1 versus the Vikings at home. The Redskins got a couple regulars back on defense which really helped and Minnesota is not overpowering on offense with QB Case Keenum. However, the Vikes are rested and 12-3 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight contests.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Washington
NFL – (255) PITTSBURGH at (256) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET CBS
In this AFC affair, bettors have forced the books to push the total from 43 to 44.5. There is a lot of conflicting information to not allow one to make a good decision. Indianapolis permits NFL-worst 28.6 PPG, but only rings up 18 PPG. In spite of what should be a potent Pittsburgh offense, they are pedestrian 21.9 PPG and defense is Steel Curtain-like in giving up only 16.4 PPG. Hard to ignore the Steelers are 12-3 UNDER on the road.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Over
NFL – (259) N.Y. JETS at (260) TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET CBS
Jameis Winston is being placed on the shelf for a bit with an weak throwing shoulder and in comes Ryan Fitzpatrick, formerly of the New York Jets. I have never hid my distain for Fitzpatrick, who can put up good numbers, sometimes, and nearly every time for losing teams and is not above a four or five interception game either. I have no problem with Jets flying from a Pick to -2.5 at Tampa Bay.
Betting Trend – 83% backing N.Y. Jets
NFL – (263) NEW ORLEANS at (264) BUFFALO 1:00 ET FOX
Buffalo had an off night against the Jets last Thursday in 34-21 defeat and on the season is still only permitting 18.6 PPG. The new and improved New Orleans defense is conceding just 15 PPG during their six-game winning streak, which all leads to this. The total in this nonconference clash has been dumped from 48.5 to 46.6 points. While this makes sense, the Bills are 11-1 OVER at home.
Betting Trend – 90% backing Under
NFL – (267) HOUSTON at (268) L.A. RAMS 4:05 ET CBS
The Rams are rollin’ and Houston was until Deshaun Watson went down. The Texans offense struggled mightily against the worst defense in the NFL in loss to Indianapolis and with that they have blown up from +10 to +11.5 at L.A. North. If Houston does not come to play, the Rams have given proof they will have no mercy.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Los Angeles
NFL – (271) N.Y. GIANTS at (272) SAN FRANCISCO 4:25 ET FOX
I want some props on this one for being a professional. This could hardly be a worse matchup, but there is line movement and being the diligent professional I am, I have a short story to write about, with the Giants lifted from a Pick to -2.5. I would not recommend betting on this matchup since it almost it is almost as sad as watching the 30 for 30 “Nature Boy” story, but with New York getting some important defenders back, this makes sense to me.
Betting Trend – 86% backing N.Y. Giants
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 254-256-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 155-125-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 391-350 -14 ATS