For line moves, let’s talk NFL and college football and hand out some freebies for Thursday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (26-20 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday
CFB – Thursday – (309) NORTHERN ILL. at (310) TOLEDO 6:00 ET ESPNU
The MACathon continues and this is important matchup with winner most likely playing for MAC champion next month. Toledo was sent out as a -10 point favorite and has been backed up to -9. Seeing this favors Northern Illinois, the better defensive team, the total has also slipped from 58 to 56. The UNDER makes sense and Huskies are 13-3 ATS as underdogs of +7.5 to +14. Update – The total has further dipped to 55 and so has the line with NIU down to +8. These adjustments have adjusted my thinking to just leans.
Betting Trend – Was 60% backing Northern Illinois, now 53% and 72% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans North Illinois and Under
CFB – Thursday – (315) IDAHO at (316) TROY 9:15 ET ESPNU
In Sun Belt action, the total has hopped like a frog from 49 to 51. The average score of an Idaho encounter is 54.2 PPG. When Troy takes the field the scoreboard on average ends up a little past 42 total points. In the past three meetings, totals have varied from 58 to 62.5 and the highest final score was in 2014, when the total was 50, as each outcome has been an UNDER. Yes, Troy has scored 70 points in their last two outings and the Vandals could allow 35 or more, still, the Trojans are 7-1 UNDER this season and 10-2 UNDER off a home game.
Betting Trend – 61% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NFL – (453) L.A. RAMS at (454) N.Y. GIANTS 1:00 ET FOX
Though the Rams are averaging 30 PPG, the total has crumbled from 43.5 to 42 because the New York Giants lack the skill players to make a dent in Los Angeles defense in scoring 16 PPG. Aging Eli Manning does not sling it like he used to at 37 and after losing all his wide-outs, there are not many pass receivers he can trust.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Under
NFL – (457) CINCINNATI at (458) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS
Clearly someone has more faith in Jacksonville than I do, pushing the Jaguars from -3.5 to -4.5 against Cincinnati. The Bengals are hardly like your most comfortable shoes at 2-10 ATS on the road, after a +1 or better turnover margin outcome. The Jags have alternated covers all season and this sets up as ‘down’ week against a solid defensive team.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Jacksonville
NFL – (461) HOUSTON at (462) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET CBS
Nobody is being caught off guard by this total rising in AFC South confrontation. The total is up a digit from 48 to 50 and both squads are 5-2 OVER on the season, with Houston on 5-0 OVER roll. The Texans offense has been unstoppable and Indianapolis is conceding 30.7 PPG. Houston’s depleted defense is offering little resistance, making this a number to attack immediately.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Over
NFL – (465) ARIZONA at (466) SAN FRANCISCO 4:05 ET FOX
With the trade of Jimmy Garoppolo, one could argue San Francisco’s two top quarterbacks are better than Arizona’s based on ability, not experience. Nevertheless, it is the Cardinals attracting the action and they are up from -1. to -2.5 and back to -2 on Tuesday night. While there is no logical reason to back the 49ers, Arizona has given up 33.3 PPG in their last trio of starts and this is the right spot for Niners to breakthrough.
Betting Trend – 52% backing San Francisco
NFL – (469) KANSAS CITY at (470) DALLAS 4:25 ET CBS
The Chiefs and Cowboys are third and fifth respectively in scoring in the NFL and defensively, they rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed. You do not have to be the Secretary of the Treasury to determine this might be a higher scoring contest and the total has been lifted from 48 to 51, in a rather large move. Whether this is too much line movement will be determined, but because both teams do not commit many turnovers, the total jumping is not wrong with these offenses.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 243-249-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 152-120-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 380-336 -14 ATS