VPID Football Line Moves, Betting Trends and Free Pick for Oct.18-19

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Here is a look at the latest line moves and betting trends in the NFL, plus one game in Thursday in college football. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.

CFB – Thursday(303) MEMPHIS at (304) HOUSTON  8:00 ET  ESPN

This prime time ACC encounter has the total tumbling from 61.5 to 59 and I understand why. Forget the shootouts of the last two years, Houston is not close to the same offensively and is averaging just 25.5 PPG against opponents allowing 31.6. Memphis can score and give up a lot of points, however, the Cougars bend but don’t break defense has only been burned by Tulsa last week (45 points). Let’s think about lower score as October home teams, when the total is between 56.5 and 63, after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, are 46-17 the last decade.

Betting Trend – 81% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under

NFL – (457) BALTIMORE at (458) MINNESOTA  1:00 ET  CBS

One week after their best offensive showing, Baltimore did not manage 300 yards against Chicago at home and lost. Honestly, the Ravens look like another .500 club and they have been shifted from +4.5 to +5.5 in visiting the Twin Cities. Minnesota’s No.5 defense is more than capable of shutting down the Ravens and are 16-5 ATS at home since 2015.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Minnesota

NFL – (465) NEW ORLEANS at (466) GREEN BAY  1:00 ET  FOX

In what is considered a – quarterback’s league – all you need to know about his NFC encounter is Drew Brees vs. Brett Hundley. Others are thinking the same thing and New Orleans is up from -4.5 to -6. Making matters worse is all the other injuries Green Bay has and they no longer have guy with the ball in his hands to find a way to win.

Betting Trend – 65% backing New Orleans

NFL – (471) SEATTLE at (472) N.Y. GIANTS  4:25 ET  CBS (side and total)

The New York Giants after not having many betting friends in Denver, have quite a few more at home against Seattle. Big Blue was released at +7 and have slid to +6 or +5.5 depending on the sportsbook. In spite of Eli Manning having limited weapons to use on offense, the total has spiked like Velvetta cheese prices from 39 to 40.5 with apparent sharp money (see betting trend) Not sure I agree with totals line move, but will not discount Seattle sinking since they are among the poorest wagers in October for years.

Betting Trend – 68% backing Seattle and 95% on Under

NFL – (473) DENVER at (474) L.A. CHARGERS  4:25 ET  CBS (side and total)

Just a week ago Denver was certainly a three-point road favorite. That has all changed with Broncos off dreadful defeat and the Chargers seeking a three-game winning streak. Denver opened at -1.5 and has been turned around to +1.5. The Broncos are averaging under 19 PPG with Trevor Siemian on the road since last year, yet do you trust the Chargers at home? On Tuesday night the total began to drift downward from 43.5 to 41.5. The average score of Denver game this season is 41 points and the Chargers is 40.1.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Denver, 72% on Under

NFL – (475) ATLANTA at (476) NEW ENGLAND  8:30 ET  NBC  (side and total)

The matchup speaks for itself based on the Super Bowl. However, these are different clubs from eight months later. New England has not been dominant and has been lowered from -4.5 to -3.5 and the total has jumped from 53.5 to 55. With Atlanta 12-0 OVER when total is 49.5 or higher, that looks right, just not sure about revenge off two bad homes losses for Falcons.

Betting Trend – 68% backing Atlanta, 84% on Over

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 226-229-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 146-113-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 360-309-14 ATS

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