With the advent of football, our line moves focus shifts to the pigskin. Early in the week we will have what football bettors are thinking and as the weekend arrives, we cover late-breaking moves, the latest betting trends and of course free picks. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (223-180) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Thursday.
CFB – Friday – (145) NAVY at (146) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 8:00 ET ESPNU
Make no mistake, Navy is the better team, yet they have been taken down from -14.5 to -10.5. Two aspects come into play for this occurrence. It starts with Navy having its least experienced quarterback returning in five years and while the option offense is all the Midshipmen utilize, there is a learning curve against real opponents. Florida Atlantic has Lane Kiffin as coach, 17 starters back and the excitement of home opener should have the Owls flying around. Nonetheless, Navy is a stellar 77-39 ATS on the road.
Betting Trend – 50-50 Split
CFB – Friday – (149) BOSTON COLLEGE at (150) NORTH. ILLINOIS 9:30 ET CBSSN
It has been awhile since Boston College had a consistent offense, scoring under 21 points a game in four of the past six seasons. There is not much reason to think this year will be any different and the Eagles will again rely on the defense. After years of quality college quarterbacks at Northern Illinois, the pipeline has gone dry and going up this B.C. defense will be no treat for these Huskies. An already low total of 49.5 was dropped to 46, before shooting up to 52. B.C. is 8-1 UNDER as a favorite the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Under
CFB – Saturday – (153) BOWLING GREEN at (154) MICHIGAN STATE 12:00 ET ESPNU
It was quite a precipitous fall Michigan State had last year to 3-9 and football bettors are not sure the Spartans rebound quickly. Everyone assumes Sparty will be better, however, the days of being a Rose Bowl contender are two years off at least and they actually tumbled as favorite from -20 to -17 against Bowling Green, who went from MAC champions to 4-8 in 2016. Michigan State is brutal 4-14 ATS as favorites the last couple years and they might struggle to cover this home opener.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Michigan State
CFB – Saturday – (175) UTEP at (176) OKLAHOMA 3:30 ET FOX
Nobody saw this coming, as for the first time since 1999, Bob Stoops will not be roaming the Oklahoma sidelines. Enter Lincoln Riley to take the No.1 headset and he is expected to continue what Stoops built and make himself a part of the Oklahoma football tradition. For this contest, the total really took a tumble, falling from 66 to 62. Nobody is doubting Baker Mayfield and Sooners offense will pile up the points, but will the offensively challenged UTEP Miners be able to dig into the end zone? Boomer Sooner, baby!
Betting Trend – 52% backing Over
Become a VPID member for Only $7.00 for 7 days and I Guarantee you will be saying “Give Me More” with Doug Upstone’s Premium Plays, our Wise Guys plays, Super Systems and we will set you up on auto renewal for only $39.99 a month for all sports, cancel at any time. Join in upper left.
CFB – Saturday – (179) SOUTH ALABAMA at (180) MISSISSIPPI 7:30 ET ESPNU
No doubt Ole Miss being lowered from -27 to -24 is questions about where the football program is after the dismissal of head coach Hugh Freeze. One cannot argue about the logic, though at least the Rebels will have had a lot of time to mentally prepare for this. Shea Patterson looks like the next excellent quarterback to play for Mississippi, but will he stay past this season with sanctions coming? South Alabama upset Miss. State in last year’s opener, yet, cannot see that happening again. Tough call.
Betting Trend – 87% backing South Alabama
CFB – Saturday – (181) WEST. MICHIGAN at (182) USC 5:15 ET PAC-12N
One year too late for Western Michigan to take on USC. The Broncos were unbeaten before losing to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl, where they finally met their match. With P.J. Fleck gone as coach and key personnel losses, bettors look at a loaded USC squad and bumped up the Men of Troy from -23.5 to -27. If the Broncos are to compete, they have to move the ball, eat up the clock and generate scores in half their drives. If not, the big play offense of USC carves them up.
Betting Trend – 81% backing USC
CFB – Saturday – (195) HOUSTON at (196) UT-SAN ANTONIO 7:00 ET Local TV
The loss of coach Tom Herman and QB Greg Ward Jr., takes Houston off the favorite role in the AAC. Major Applewhite takes over as coach and he has to develop a running game and hope transfer Kyle Allen is ready to be a solid signal caller. One year removed from a 3-9 campaign, UTSA was 6-6 and lost a tight game in their first-ever bowl game in New Mexico. With several key returnees and being at home, the Roadrunners are down three points to +11.5. This could be intriguing.
Betting Trend – 61% backing UTSA
CFB – Sunday – (211) TEXAS A&M at (212) UCLA 7:30 ET FOX
Last year’s Aggies 31-24 victory was just under the closing total of 55.5. Now playing in Pasadena, the total has dipped from 58 to 56 points. Not being sold on either team’s defensive ability and being physical enough, I will forecast this contest to end right around 60 points, with UCLA QB Josh Rosen having a very large day against Texas A&M defense.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 167-184-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 120-95-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 276-247-14 ATS