VPID Early Football Line Moves and Betting Trends for Dec.5th

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Today we have the latest line moves in the NFL along with the Army vs. Navy contest. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (15-9 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here tomorrow.

CFB –  (103) ARMY vs. (104) NAVY  3:00 ET  CBS

With the Army finally winning last year and ending long losing streak, the competitive nature is back in the contest. However, what football bettors are interested in is the total, which has fallen dramatically from 51 to 46.5. The large drop is not a surprise since the UNDER is 10-0 the last decade. This does make sense as the teams are mirror images of one another and they know how to defend the opposing offense.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Under

NFL – (115) MINNESOTA at (116) CAROLINA  1:00 ET  FOX

Minnesota has played virtually as stable as New England, which is why those betting football have no problem backing the Vikings even on the road, pushing them from -1 to -2.5. Being a more defensive and ball control squad outfit, Minnesota is likely driver for total dipping a point to 41. It seem risky to go against Carolina at home off a loss, yet the Vikings are very steady and 6-0 UNDER off a road win.

Betting Trend – 61% backing Minnesota and 65% on Over

NFL – (119) SAN FRANCISCO at (120) HOUSTON  1:00 ET  FOX

An eyebrow or two was probably raised when Houston went from -1 to -3 against San Francisco. The 49ers have won two of three, while the Texans are 1-5 SU recently (3-3 ATS) and Houston’s injuries continue to mount. The other perspective is this, can you imagine the Niners winning consecutive road games? That is where it really becomes tricky to back San Fran.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Houston

NFL – (121) WASHINGTON at (122) L.A. CHARGERS  4:05 ET  CBS

The Carson Chargers are playing like they could win their division, on a major 6-2 SU and ATS roll. The Bolts were released as touchdown favorites, but have been backed down to -6 point choice. Washington is unpredictable, as Kirk Cousins can get hot as a passer, which could alter game dynamics. The question becomes can you trust the Redskins after awful showing at Dallas? At adjusted price, the value is with Chargers.

Betting Trend – 60% backing L.A. South

NFL – (123) N.Y. JETS at (124) DENVER  4:05  ET  CBS

These matchups with bad teams are tough to predict. With Denver playing so dreadful on a eight-game losing streak (0-8 ATS), the Broncos have been flipped from -1 to +1 home underdogs against the Jets. It is easy to understand why since New York is still trying, while Denver looks to have packed in the season already. The Broncos have committed 21 turnovers in this atrocious stretch and this seems to be key to eventual outcome. Fingers crossed on home team.

Betting Trend – 92% backing N.Y. Jets

NFL – (127) PHILADELPHIA at (128) L.A. RAMS 4:25 ET  FOX

With Philadelphia falling in Seattle, the money trail in going against the Eagles and they have gone up from +1 to 2.5 in Los Angeles. This might be an overreaction to Philadelphia losing for just a second time and while turnovers helped dictate the outcome, the Eagles had a +115 yardage edge in the contest. The Rams are young, talented and exciting and so are the Eagles and I would not recommend giving up on them just yet.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Philadelphia

NFL – (129) DALLAS at (130) N.Y. GIANTS  1:00 ET  FOX

Is New York dipping a point to +5 a reflection of Ben McAdoo being fired? Possibly, but it is also saying Eli Manning gives the Giants a better chance to win than Geno Smith. We all understand the G-Men stink and are a rotten team, yet when you factor in coaching change, Manning unquestionably will be laser-focused and it is home game against Dallas, anything less than New York’s best effort would be a stunner.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Dallas

NFL – Monday(133) NEW ENGLAND at (134) MIAMI  8:30 ET   ESPN

Both the side and total moved in this Monday night clash, with one more meaningful than the other. The total has crumbled from 48.5 to 47 and New England is down a digit to -11. The Patriots adjustment seems inconsequential, as typically a -12 to -11 seldom would matter and it seems driven by Rob Gronkowski’s suspension. The sinking total is also a reflection the New England offense has not quite as sharp and is second in the league in field goal attempts.

Betting Trend – 88% backing New England and 95% on Under

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 284-278-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 176-139-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 439-389 -14 ATS

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