VPID Early College Football Line Moves and Betting Trends for Nov. 14th


Hard to believe we are this far into the college football season and we have this week’s biggest line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

CFB – Friday –  (319) UNLV at (320) NEW MEXICO  9:30 ET  ESPN2

All season, UNLV and New Mexico have been difficult teams to get a read on and this continues in this MWC matchup. Oddsmakers made the Lobos a two-point home favorite and they have been flipped to a one-point underdog against UNLV. In looking at technical, both have useful points, however, the Rebels get the call because of a better offense. Not sure this line will hold up however.

Betting Trend – 51% backing UNLV

CFB – (333) N.C. STATE at (334) WAKE FOREST   7:30 ET  ESPNU

N.C. State has a strong offense and at least three defensive starters who will be NFL draft picks, yet they do not have all the pieces that that shows up in three recent games where they were 1-2 and 0-1-2 ATS. They have themselves a real task at Wake Forest, whose offense is averaging 47.7 PPG in past three starts. Wake Forest is up from a Pick to -2.

Betting Trend – 54% backing N.C. State

CFB – (375) VIRGINIA at (376) MIAMI-FL  12:00 ET  ABC

With how Miami is playing, not sure sportsbooks could have set an accurate spread that football bettors would not have bet up. This is what happened as the Hurricanes have blown from -17 to -19.5. This should be a flat spot for Miami, however, Virginia has allowed 36.5 PPG in last four contests and the Canes have too much speed for Cavaliers.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Miami-FL

CFB – (391) NEBRASKA at (392) PENN STATE  4:00 ET  FS1

If a team as slow as Minnesota can score 52 points on Nebraska, what is Penn State capable of? Turns out the Nittany Lions were not as strong as expected, but that should not matter against the Cornhuskers, who have been pushed from +23 to +26.Penn State is 10-1 ATS at home after permitting 14 or fewer points.

Betting Trend – 98% backing Penn State

CFB – (393) LSU at (394) TENNESSEE  7:00 ET  ESPN

The inevitable occurred, coach Butch Jones are fired and the search begins for the next Tennessee head man. Either way, that is not going to make life easier for this helpless Vols team and they have gone up two points to +16 home underdogs to LSU. The sense you get from watching Tennessee, they just want the season to end.

Betting Trend – 96% backing LSU

CFB – (411) MARSHALL at (412) UTSA  7:00 ET

While a bit perplexing, maybe UTSA should have been favored to begin with when reviewing all the numbers and considering the total into this C-USA equation. The Roadrunners are now a -1 home favorite after being sent out at +1.5. Nonetheless, Marshall is 4-1 ATS on the road this season and UTSA is 0-4 ATS at home, which is hard to ignore.

Betting Trend – 90% backing Marshall

CFB – (415) MICHIGAN at (416) WISCONSIN  12:00 ET  FOX

Wisconsin fans feel their 10-0 team has been disrespected and it continues, as they have tumbled from -10 to -7.5 against Michigan in Madison. Maybe the Badgers will be really juiced for this contest, but this is first true opponent who can match them across the board on skill and speed, which leads me to taking the points.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Michigan


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 257-261-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 162-133-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 400-363 -14 ATS


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