VPID Early College Football Line Moves and Betting Trends for Sept. 19th

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We begin another week of line moves in college football. Last week if you followed where the numbers went, you would have had an outstanding 16-5 week overall. The 80 percent picks were solid 4-2 against and are up to 57.3% for 2017, if you look at the numbers below. Overall, I was very solid 13-8. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (254-208) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow for NFL.

CFB – Thursday (303) TEMPLE at (304) SOUTH FLORIDA  7:30 ET ESPN  (side and total)

South Florida and the total are blowing up like somebody who quit Weight Watchers. The Bulls have run from -17.5 to -20.5 and the total has scampered from 58.5 to 63. After being blasted by Notre Dame and barely defeating Villanova and UMass, Temple has obviously slipped and their speed on defense has evaporated. Though both line moves are rather large, they appear to be accurate.

Betting Trend – 75% backing South Florida and Over

CFB – (325) LOUISIANA TECH at (326) SOUTH CAROLINA  3:30 ET SECN

The loss of WR Deebo Samuel and South Carolina looking very ineffective offensively in stunning home loss to Kentucky, has led to the Gamecocks falling from -11 to -8.5. In truth, look for this to go back up, because South Carolina still has better players and speed and Louisiana Tech is not as explosive offensively as in past years.

Betting Trend – 60% backing South Carolina

CFB – (353) WASHINGTON at (354) COLORADO  10:00 ET  FS1

Tighten the chinstrap as last season’s Pac-12 title rematch is expected to feature quite a bit of defense and the total has dipped from 53 to 50. In assessing this contest, both clubs will have problems running consistently and will have to rely on the pass, which could lead to miscues. Let’s follow the idea mistakes lead to points and call for a total of 54 points.

Betting Trend – 57% backing Over

CFB – (373) AUBURN at (374) MISSOURI  7:30 ET  ESPNU

Off a pair of ugly offensive showing, Auburn has the right opponent to help them get back on track in Missouri. The Mizzou Tigers are permitting 36.3 PPG and if Purdue can hold Missouri to three points, the Auburn defense should be able to keep them to 10 or less. Though Auburn has been lifted two points to -19, still see them taking care of business in Columbia.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Auburn

CFB – (383) TCU at (384) OKLAHOMA STATE  3:30 ET  ESPN

Oklahoma State in Stillwater is a real juggernaut, yet it was still mild surprising to see how quickly the Cowboys have been ridden from -10.5 to -12.5 over a quality TCU squad. The Horned Frogs have, experience, size and talent, but playing typical man coverage against Oklahoma State receivers could be the deciding factor, unless TCU has steady pass rush.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Oklahoma State

CFB – (389) UTSA at (390) TEXAS STATE  7:30 ET  ESPN3

This line move is not something everyone will notice, yet its execution is accurate. Texas State has been lowered as a home underdog by two points to -13.5 against UTSA. The Bobcats have shown a very good run defense versus Colorado and Appalachian State, which should keep them in the contest. However, does Texas State have enough offense to cover the spread?

Betting Trend – 64% backing UTSA

CFB – (401) OKLAHOMA at (402) BAYLOR  6:30 ET  FS1

The thought is this could get ugly in a hurry, with Oklahoma up from -25 to -28.5 at Waco. The Bears lack the firepower to stay with the Sooners and their defense is in serious decline, especially on the speed side in space where Oklahoma could generate numerous big plays that lead to scores and build lead swiftly.

Betting Trend – 91% backing Oklahoma

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 189-198-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 136-101-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 307-270-14 ATS

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