VPID Early College Football Line Moves and Betting Trends for Nov.28th

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One final week looking ahead to line moves in college football before the bowl games. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here tomorrow.

CFB – Friday (303) STANFORD vs. (304) USC  8:00 ET  ESPN

In the Pac-12 championship, the interest level has to do with the total, which has been elevated from 57 to 58.5. The prior meeting had a total of 66 and that game’s closing total was 55. Though Stanford is a better team than they were in September, they still have speed issues on defense, which could lead to a higher than anticipated contest again.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Over

CFB – (307) LOUISIANA  at (308) APPALACHIAN STATE   2:30 ET  ESPN3

Appalachian State can wrap up their portion of SBC title with a victory and those wagering are convinced this will happen with a higher score, moving total up two points to 59.5. Louisiana is 7-4 OVER and have gotten here strangely at 4-0, 0-4 and 3-0 OVER. The Mountaineers defense holds the key and we will say they slow Louisiana down.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Over

CFB – (317) MEMPHIS at (318) CENTRAL FLORIDA  12:00 ET  ABC

Handicapping a total in the 80’s in college football is hard enough and when it goes from 81 to 84.5, not sure how you make sense of that figure. For this one, I will use the common opponents methodology and the sweet spot average for these two teams in 78 points, which will work for us in AAC title game.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Under

CFB – (319) AKRON vs. (320) TOLEDO 12:00 ET  ESPN (side and total)

Football bettors are calling for MAC championship blowout, with Toledo up three points to -21.5. Using this as platform, the average score of a Toledo game is just over 62 points and if they are dictating how the game is played, it makes sense the total should climb from 54 to 57.5. Let’s take Akron to cover big number and agree with higher score.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Toledo and 90% on Over

CFB – (321) GEORGIA vs. (322) AUBURN  4:00 ET  CBS

Those betting football are convinced we will not sniff the 57 points we saw a month ago and lowered the total from 51 to 49. With Georgia having more of the crowd in their favor, this should be a more defensive game. Both teams will have some success moving the pigskin, but points could be difficult to manufacture.

Betting Trend – 81% backing Under

CFB – (325) MIAMI-FL vs. (326) CLEMSON  8:00 ET  ABC

 It is a well known fact teams losing for first time late in the season struggle to find that magic the following week. Take this fact and add in Clemson’s pedigree and the Tigers have leapt from -7.5 to -9.5. That seems like a stretch and I expect number to come down. Being this big an underdog works to Miami’s advantage.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Clemson

CFB – (333) TCU vs. (334) OKLAHOMA  12:30 ET  FOX

The first matchup reached 58 points with closing total of 64 in Norman. This time at Jerry’s World, the total opened at 61.5 and was lifted to 63.5. The three best offensive teams TCU  has faced, they allowed an average of 35 PPG and just do not see how they slow Oklahoma down enough. Prefer the higher score.

Betting Trend – 94% backing Over

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 270-273-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 172-138-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 423-382 -14 ATS

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