VPID College Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Sept. 29-30

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Oh my goodness, there is so many line moves I could 5,000 words just to over all the games. Instead, have added a few new ones and some of those we had from the other day have completely new adjustments. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (263-224) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow for NFL.

CFB – Friday (105) MIAMI-FL at (106) DUKE  7:00 ET  ESPN  *New Total

Miami like other Florida universities got back to normal this past week and played football after a long layoff and evidently football bettors liked what they saw from the Hurricanes and have bumped them from -4.5 to -6.5 at 4-0 Duke. Hard to argue with this line movement when the ‘Canes are 6-0 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in last outing. UpdateMiami has come back to -6, but the big news is the total dipping from 58 to 55. I will still back the Hurricanes and agree with sinking total.

Betting Trend – Was 55% backing Duke, now 51% and 63% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans Miami and Under

CFB – (113) CHARLOTTE at (114) FLORIDA INT.  7:00 ET  beIN  *New Total

Someone is paying attention to what has to be a low volume betting C-USA contest. Charlotte is 0-4 SU and ATS and has few friends in the betting community and the 49ers have gone from +10 to +12 versus Florida International. Charlotte losing and not covering against teams like themselves is the driving force for them being rising underdog. UpdateAfter reaching as high as -13, this conference clash has come back to original starting point of 10. The total has been pushed upward three points to 49 and given Charlotte’s offense, that to me favors FIU.

Betting Trend – Was 95% backing FIU, now 63% and 66% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeFIU covers, Lean Under

CFB – (117) SOUTH FLORIDA at (118) EAST CAROLINA  12:00 ET CBSSN *New*  (side and total)

East Carolina got in the win column for the first time the last Sunday with upset of Connecticut and is showing they have the making a fine passing offenses. This provides potential value on them to cover the spread on the backdoor and the Pirates have been moved off the plank from +24 to +21 against South Florida. Because the ECU defense is still 129th in the country in points allowed, the total has spiked from 69 to 75. I don’t think we are going to get the Bulls best effort and will back ECU, but really do not like that large a total because of this.

Betting Trend – 76% backing South Florida and  64% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans East Carolina and Under

CFB – (129) AKRON at (130) BOWLING GREEN  6:00 ET  ESPN3

In 2015, Bowling Green was on their way to a MAC championship. Now the Falcons cannot even get off the ground with an 0-4 start. Bowling Green is 4-12 ATS since last season and despite Akron not exactly setting the pace nationally at 1-3, the Zips have been flipped from +1 to -3. If Bowling Green is going to win, this might be the spot. UpdateAkron was dislodged to -2.5 on Wednesday, where they have remained since. A rather significant drop on tickets for the Zips.

Betting Trend – Was 82% backing Akron, now 56%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Bowling Green

CFB – (139) BAYLOR at (140) KANSAS STATE  3:30 ET  ESPN2  *New Total

Baylor gave Oklahoma all they could handle last Saturday, losing 49-41 as 28-point home underdogs. Evidently that bought no goodwill as the Bears are up three-points to +17 at Kansas State, who is coming off upset setback at Vanderbilt. K-State is sharp 8-1 ATS after scoring 14 or fewer points. UpdateIt appears football bettors coming later did respect Baylor’s efforts last week and they have dropped from +17 to +15.5. The total has also come down, a whopping four points to 55, which would seem to favor Kansas State. With these line adjustments let’s go K-State off a loss and the Over.

Betting Trend – Was 52% backing Baylor, now 58% and 55% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans Kansas State and Over

CFB – (151) INDIANA at (152) PENN STATE  3:30 ET BTN *New*

This Big Ten battle has the total climbing four points to 62.5. I am on board with this because we know about Penn State’s offensive explosiveness and let’s not lose sight of Indiana has really good passing offense and can also have the scoreboard flashing. With the Hoosiers 7-0 OVER after scoring 37 points or more, I like it!

Betting Trend – 58% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over

CFB – (153) NAVY at (154) TULSA  3:30 ET  ESPNU

One of the most puzzling scores from last week was Tulsa scoring 13 points at home in losing to New Mexico. Yes, the Golden Hurricane did a have a couple RB’s get dinged, nonetheless, that was terribly low score. Because Navy can play keep away with the pigskin also, Tulsa has been lifted from +3 to +6. UpdateThe Navy has soared to -8 or -8.5 depending on the sportsbook. I don’t like this going over key number of 7 and will only nod with the Middies.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Navy, now 76%

Doug’s VPID TakeSlight lean Navy

CFB – (159) COLORADO at (160) UCLA  10:30 ET  ESPN2

Gosh, a UCLA game with a rising total, go figure! In this Pac-12 conflict, the total is up three digits to 69.5 thanks to the Bruins scoring 45 PPG and allowing 43.2 PPG. Expect Colorado to ring up the points and have all kinds of problems stopping UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen in high scoring affair. UpdateA significant reversal on the total to 67.5. I think this just adds value on my initial impression and will still with the higher score.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over

CFB – (167) SOUTH CAROLINA  at (168) TEXAS A&M  7:30 ET  SECN

With South Carolina’s offense having gone quiet thanks to injuries, keeping pace scoring-wise with Texas A&M is expected to be a problem and the Gamecocks had been moved up from +8 to +10. Though Kevin Sumlin is bad bet as coach, Aggies have too much firepower and win this SEC contest going away. UpdateAs expected, Sumlin’s reputation precedes him and the Aggies are back to -8, with some books even at -7.5. Bettors have also caved the total from 55 to 49, which would also seem to favor South Carolina. Maybe I am just being stubborn, but I think A&M will move the ball on the Gamecocks and this game is in the 50’s for sure.

Betting Trend – Was 80% backing South Carolina, now 70% and 63% on Under

Doug’s VPID TakeTexas A&M covers and Over

CFB – (199) OKLAHOMA STATE at (200) TEXAS TECH  8:00 ET FOX *New* 

This Big 12 tilt had an opening total of 80 and in the last couple days have been shoved all the way to 84. While that sure sounds like a large total, last year’s game in Stillwater closed at 87.5 and Oklahoma State won 45-44. I am not crazy about these kinds of extreme contests and see no value even if I was thinking about a higher score, nonetheless, they have played five consecutive Over’s and there is little reason to think it cannot happen again.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (14-6 ATS) in order: UVLV, Southern Miss, Flor. State, Okla. State and UCF

Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (9-11 ATS) in order: NM State/Ark. OVER, Cal/Oregon OVER, Northw./Wiscon. UNDER, M.T.S/FAU OVER, and NIU/S.D. State Over

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 194-205-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 138-110-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 317-285-14 ATS

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