VPID College Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Sept. 23

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It is like the world went with so many line moves since Tuesday! We grabbed the most compelling for various reasons and have updates on those from the other day. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (255-210) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow for NFL.

CFB – (311) DUKE at (312) NORTH CAROLINA  3:30 ET  ESPNU  *New* (side and total)

Two sinking elements, first, Duke is down from -3 to -1.5 and the total has shrunk from 62 to 59. Before I go further, why is this rivalry game being played in September? #stupid I am convinced the Blue Devils are the better team, but not sold on them with the underdog on a nice 5-0 ATS run and North Carolina at home. Have you seem the Tar Heels defense? Take the Over

Betting Trend – 69% backing North Carolina and 52% on Under

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans North Carolina and Over

CFB – (315) PITTSBURGH at (316) GEORGIA TECH  12:20 ET  ACCN  *New* (side and total)

Just perfect for Pittsburgh! After playing Penn State and Oklahoma State in back to back weeks, Pitt goes on the road to face the nation’s No.1 rushing team, really! With this the Panthers have been pushed three points upward to +9.5. At least the 127th rated pass defense numbers will improve against Georgia Tech option run offense. The total was lowered quite a bit from 60 to 55, as Pittsburgh has not found a reliable quarterback yet.

Betting Trend – 86% backing Georgia Tech and 69% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans Georgia Tech and Over

CFB – (323) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (324) GEORGIA  7:00 ET  ESPN   *New*

Mississippi State has been this week’s flavor of the week after pounding LSU. The Bulldogs opened at +6.5, went to +5, back to +6.5 and are now at +4 to the Dawgs of Georgia. Really liked what I saw from Mississippi State, especially on defense in terms of speed and running to the ball. But can they match same intensity on the road, two weeks in a row?

Betting Trend – 65% backing Mississippi State

Doug’s VPID Take Lean Georgia

CFB – (325) LOUISIANA TECH at (326) SOUTH CAROLINA  3:30 ET  SECN

The loss of WR Deebo Samuel and South Carolina looking very ineffective offensively in stunning home loss to Kentucky, has led to the Gamecocks falling from -11 to -7.5. In truth, look for this to go back up, because South Carolina still has better players and speed and Louisiana Tech is not as explosive offensively as in past years. South Carolina is 17-5 ATS when hosting FBS foes and is 10-2 ATS at home against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse. The Gamecocks by 14 or more. UpdateI told you was going to go back up and it has to -9 on South Carolina.

Betting Trend – Was 60% backing South Carolina, now 83%

Doug’s VPID TakeSouth Carolina covers

CFB – (343) GEORGIA STATE at (344) CHARLOTTE  6:00 ET  *New*

I am the first to admit, this game stinks, I mean really bad, but when writing about line moves all these years, I am a sucker for a flip. Georgia State was released at -2.5 and switched to +1. Neither teams have won a game or covered a spread, so that will change for somebody. As for who covers, honestly no clue and will go with one set of my Power Ratings VPID customers receive and that has Georgia State at -1.5.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Charlotte

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Georgia State

CFB – (353) WASHINGTON at (354) COLORADO  10:00 ET  FS1

Tighten the chinstrap as last season’s Pac-12 title rematch is expected to feature quite a bit of defense and the total has dipped from 53 to 50. In assessing this contest, both clubs will have problems running consistently and will have to rely on the pass, which could lead to miscues. Let’s follow the idea mistakes lead to points and call for a total of 54 points. UpdateThe total on this tilt has not budged an inch all week in spite of the betting trend going the other way.

Betting Trend – Was 57% backing Over, now 71%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

CFB – (373) AUBURN at (374) MISSOURI  7:30 ET  ESPNU

Off a pair of ugly offensive showing, Auburn has the right opponent to help them get back on track in Missouri. The Mizzou Tigers are permitting 36.3 PPG and if Purdue can hold Missouri to three points, the Auburn defense should be able to keep them to 10 or less. Though Auburn has been lifted two points to -19, still see them taking care of business in Columbia. UpdateBit of a surprise on a buyback on Missouri, now listed at +17.5. I do understand the notion of Auburn being able to score enough, but with the total at 60, oddsmakers are essentially saying the Auburn wins 40-20.

Betting Trend – Was 88% backing Auburn, now 85%

Doug’s VPID TakeAuburn covers

CFB – (383) TCU at (384) OKLAHOMA STATE  3:30 ET  ESPN

Oklahoma State in Stillwater is a real juggernaut, yet it was still mild surprising to see how quickly the Cowboys have been ridden from -10.5 to -12.5 over a quality TCU squad. The Horned Frogs have, experience, size and talent, but playing typical man coverage against Oklahoma State receivers could be the deciding factor, unless TCU has steady pass rush. UpdateOklahoma State went briefly higher on Thursday before coming back to same figure of -12.5. What did change was the total, up from 67 to 71. Part of me says TCU, but when I think about the Cowboys receivers, have to go with them at home and definitely do not like direct of total.

Betting Trend – Was 82% backing Oklahoma State, now 61% and 78% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Oklahoma State and Under

CFB – (389) UTSA at (390) TEXAS STATE  7:30 ET  ESPN3

This line move is not something everyone will notice, yet its execution is accurate. Texas State has been lowered as a home underdog by two points to -13.5 against UTSA. The Bobcats have shown a very good run defense versus Colorado and Appalachian State, which should keep them in the contest. However, does Texas State have enough offense to cover the spread? UpdateThis number has held steady all week and my concerns about the Bobcats scoring have also not changed.

Betting Trend – Was 64% backing UTSA, now 60%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean UTSA

CFB – (401) OKLAHOMA at (402) BAYLOR  6:30 ET  FS1

The thought is this could get ugly in a hurry, with Oklahoma up from -25 to -28.5 at Waco. The Bears lack the firepower to stay with the Sooners and their defense is in serious decline, especially on the speed side in space where Oklahoma could generate numerous big plays that lead to scores and build lead swiftly. UpdateJust a half point reduction on the Sooners to -27.5. Unless Oklahoma is flat, which should have last week, it should be Boomer Sooner.

Betting Trend – 91% backing Oklahoma (unchanged)

Doug’s VPID TakeOklahoma covers

Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (10-5 ATS) in order: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wash. State, Georgia Tech and Auburn

Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (8-7 ATS) in order: Okla./Baylor OVER, Notre Dame/Mich, St. UNDER, B.C./Clemson OVER, Oregon/ASU OVER, and Syra./LSU  UNDER

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 190-199-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 136-102-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 308-272-14 ATS

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