VPID College Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Sept. 16

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Time to dial up college football! We could have added Friday line moves, but those were injury related, as is the case with a few games on Saturday and we will instead focus on pure line movement. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (241-200) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow with the NFL.

CFB – (119) AIR FORCE  at (120) MICHIGAN  12:00 ET  BTN  (side and total) *New*

Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight has struggled so far this season while facing pressure or throwing outside of the pocket. This week it has been back to basics for the Wolverines signal caller, yet those betting football are undeterred and have lowered Michigan from -26 to -23 and the total four points to 50. There is also the belief on the totals side the home team will disrupt the Air Force option. The adjusted numbers are more accurate in my assessment, making both a difficult call.

Betting Trend – 54% backing Michigan and 86% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans Michigan and Over

CFB – (143) KANSAS at (144) OHIO U. 12:00 ET  ESPNU

Though both teams have played nothing but Over’s this season, the total has plummeted from 59 to 52. Ohio U. does have perimeter players that might not see the field again, which could explain the lion’s share of the drop. Even with this, these defenses can be scored upon and from this perspective, would rather go high than low at 52 points. Update – This total came back rather quickly on Wednesday and has been at 58 points since. Very strange betting trend based on line movement.

Betting Trend – Was 76% on Over, now 47%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

CFB – (147) CLEMSON at (148) LOUISVILLE  8:00 ET  ABC  *New*

In this big ACC encounter, the totals has slid from 61 to 58 which would seem to favor Clemson, seeing they are stronger defensive team. However, I cannot get last year’s 42-36 thriller out my head and with Lamar Jackson at home, I could see him having big game and the Tigers having success against the Cardinals 123rd rate pass defense.

Betting Trend – 68% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over

CFB – (153) WISCONSIN at (154) BYU  3:30 ET  ABC

BYU does not look good and in facing a third straight quality team, the sense is the Cougars are overmatched and will not score enough on Wisconsin or contain their offense. This explains the Badgers jumping from -13 to -17. The data is available to back Wisconsin, just not certain about this many points for them to cover. Update – The initial line move was out ahead of the public announcement that BYU quarterback Tanner Mangum is “doubtful” for this contest. Since the Cougars has slightly backed up to +16.5. Cannot back BYU without their starting QB.

Betting Trend – Was 62% on Wisconsin, now 54%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Wisconsin

CFB – (157) NORTH TEXAS at (158) IOWA  3:30 ET  ESPN2

If this was 10 or more years ago, Iowa would be rising favorite, not one dipping from -24 to -21.5. It used to be the Hawkeyes were gold at home in these spots, not anymore and Iowa is only 13-24 ATS at home after two or more consecutive straight up wins. Plus, they have Penn State on deck in Iowa City.  Update – Latest update has close to even split on Iowa at either -21.5 or -22. More inclined to take North Texas who also has quality passing attack.

Betting Trend – Was 68% on Iowa, now 78%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean North Texas

CFB – (171) ARMY at (172) OHIO STATE  4:30 ET  FOX

Probably not going to be a whole lot of excitement surrounding this contest in Columbus. At least the Ohio State secondary will see it’s 130th ranked pass defense ranking improve against Army’s option attack. The total is up two points to 53 and the Buckeyes surpass it if they have the ground game working and can fix the offense.  Update -Virtually no movement on this total since Tuesday and I’m told low action for an Ohio State game.

Betting Trend – Was 60% on Over, now 21%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

CFB – (173) OREGON STATE at (174) WASHINGTON STATE  5:30 ET  PAC-12N

Oregon State has gotten mauled twice and beaten Portland State by three as 26.5 point favorites. The Beavers appear to be the worst club in the Pac-12 and though Washington State was fortunate to win last week in OT vs. Boise State, Oregon State has blown up from +17 to +21.5. The Beavers are slow-starting 12-27 ATS on the September road. Update – Slight buyback on Washington State to -21 and I will forecast the Cougs thrash the Beavers.

Betting Trend –  Was 57% backing Washington State, now 67%

Doug’s VPID TakeWashington State covers

CFB – (179) TULSA  at (180) TOLEDO 7:00 ET  ESPN3    *New*

Tulsa and Toledo both have offenses that score points. The Golden Hurricane are averaging 45 PPG and Rockets are at 42 PPG. The total has actually come down in this battle of the letter ‘T’  from 74 to 68.  As for why, Toledo’s defense is doing solid work in holding opponents to 18 PPG. However, the Golden Hurricane run like the wind and strive to have a least 90 snaps per game and play at extremely fast pace, which could make the Rockets weary, where they could make mistakes leading to more Tulsa scoring. I will call for at least 70 points.

Betting Trend – 72% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over

CFB – (181) IDAHO at (182) WESTERN MICHIGAN  7:00 ET  ESPN3

UNLV loses to Howard, Idaho losses to UNLV by 26 points, thus, naturally the Vandals go from +16.5 to +20 at Western Michigan. The Broncos are not the same team as a year ago and offensively have stumbled against better competition. This is opportunity for Western Mich. to find running game and have passing offense click. Update – Nearly 100 percent of sportsbooks on 20.5.

Betting Trend – Was 54% backing Western Michigan, now 57%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Western Michigan

CFB – (191) KANSAS STATE at (192) VANDERBILT  7:30 ET  ESPNU

Though the competition has not been stellar for either team, they have combined to permit only 36 total points this season, leading to the total to slip from 50.5 to 48.5. While on the surface this might be logical, each team has an offense that can score and a final score of 27-24 is expected from this perspective. Update – The total has gone up and quite a variety of numbers, depending on the sportsbook, as this is listed from 49.5 to 50.5. I will still with original thinking.

Betting Trend – Was 81% on Under, now 96%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

CFB – (203) SAN JOSE STATE  at (204) UTAH  10:00 ET  ESPN2    *New*

Massive differential in skill, size and speed in this contest and football bettors are guessing Utah will pile the points, as they sent the total skyrocketing from 53 to 59. Utah has been moving the pigskin, but has experienced red zone issues. While a game like this is ideal situation to work on this before conference play, I’m not sure the Utes will be 100 percent focused and I’ll call for them to win 38-13, leading to UNDER.

Betting Trend – 95% on Under

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under

 

Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (6-4 ATS) in order: Alabama, Virginia Tech, Marshall, Iowa State and Purdue

Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (5-5 ATS) in order: Oregon/Wyom. OVER, K-State/Vandy UNDER, S.J. St./Utah UNDER, Miss./Cal OVER and Tenn./Flor. UNDER

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 181-191-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 132-99-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 292-265-14 ATS

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