For line moves let’s dive into the Saturday action with fresh line moves and have updates since Tuesday’s releases. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow for NFL.
CFB – (321) SMU at (322) CINCINNATI 4:00 ET ESPNU
SMU is averaging better than 43 points game and is No. 11 in total offense in the country. Cincinnati is on an 0-4 SU and ATS skid and their run defense has fallen to 109th. Football bettors are locked into these numbers and have put a saddle on the Mustangs in riding them from -7 to -9. Update – Almost back to where we started from at 7.5, mostly because QB Hayden Moore has been upgraded to ‘probable’. Does not matter, too much offense for Ponies.
Betting Trend – 92% still backing SMU
Doug’s VPID Take – SMU covers
CFB – (323) NORTH TEXAS at (324) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 5:00 ET ESPN3
A couple of C-USA unbeatens will collide and it is the visitor that has attracted the attention, with North Texas down three points to +3.5. The Mean Green are 12th in total offense and have the better run defense by 90 yards. Florida Atlantic is 16th nationally running the ball and has better scoring defense. Concern on FAU, 3-12 ATS home record. Update – Line has remained unchanged all week, which is too bad since I sort of like North Texas in this spot, because of offense and run defense.
Betting Trend – 56% still backing North Texas
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean North Texas
CFB – (327) AKRON at (328) TOLEDO 12:00 ET ESPN3 *New*
These are two of the remaining undefeated teams in the MAC. Bettors made up their mind as to who they like by taking Toledo from -14 to -17 against Akron. The Zips play as hard as any team in the MAC, however, the Rockets have superior talent and should take this one at home.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Toledo
Doug’s VPID Take – Toledo covers
CFB – (335) INDIANA at (336) MICHIGAN STATE 3:30 ET ABC
Indiana did not have much success other than one drive against Michigan and chances are they will not at East Lansing this week, which is why the total has crumbled from 47.5 to 44.5. The adjustment seems rather severe and when these Big Ten buddies have met at this locale, the OVER is 7-2. Update – Back up the bus Gus on this total which has seen a complete about face, now at 45.5 or 46 and check out how betting trend has flipped. I was on the OVER from the start!
Betting Trend – 85% backing Under, now 17% Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CFB – (347) SYRACUSE at (348) MIAMI-FL 3:30 ET ESPN *New Side*
Syracuse tries to slay another giant, this time on the road in Miami area. It seems there is this public perception that Orange have this big time offense and its defense is beatable. Yet on the season they are 6-1 UNDER. That is why the total rising from 55 to 58 does not make sense and the Hurricanes are 3-0 UNDER is ACC action. Update – The total has blown all the way to 59.5 at most sportsbooks and the same is true of the Hurricanes, up three points to -17. Not seeing it on the total based on the numbers and Syracuse has gotten better with recent 4-0-1 ATS mark.
Betting Trend – Was 51% backing Under, now 78% and 73% on Syracuse
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under, lean Syracuse
CFB – (351) WAKE FOREST at (352) GEORGIA TECH 7:30 ET ESPNU *New*
Sharps and the betting public alike are on Wake Forest, lowering them from +8.5 to +5 versus Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets come in off their second blown fourth quarter lead of the season, against Miami last week. This could mean they are angry of carry it with them and make it another loss. I don’t agree with line move, still preferring the Techster’s No. 15 defense and the fact that Demon Deacons have not faced this option attack since 2010.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Wake Forest
Doug’s VPID Take – Georgia Tech covers
CFB – (355) MICHIGAN at (356) PENN STATE 7:30 ET ABC
Saw this coming from a mile away. Michigan, because of their defense, being lowered from +12.5 to +9.5. Here is the problem, the Wolverines have no passing offense and Penn State is holding opponents to 9.0 PPG. If you like the Nittany Lions, now is the time to grab them, being in single digits and 9-1 ATS at home after conceding 14 or fewer points. Update – This line went to 10 for a few hours on Wednesday, before settling at 9.5, where it remains. I understand the Wolverines defense has held every team to season-low in yards, but I think Michigan’s offense will get them in trouble, which place me on revenge-minded Penn State.
Betting Trend – Was 68% backing Penn State, now 58%
Doug’s VPID Take – Penn State covers
CFB – (381) SOUTHERN MISS at (382) LOUISIANA TECH 7:00 ET
With how North Texas has been playing, neither team in the West Division of C-USA can afford a loss, already strapped with one defeat. Southern Miss has won and covered the last two meetings and has come down two points to a +1.5 point road underdog. Louisiana Tech does appear to be the weaker squad, but has played better schedule. Update – Another buyback, with the Bulldogs back to -2.5 and reverse on betting trend. I prefer the Golden Eagles defense in this one.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Southern Miss, now 25%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Southern Miss
CFB – (385) ARIZONA at (386) CALIFORNIA 8:00 ET PAC-12N
Thought to be a lock to finish last in the Pac-12 South, Arizona is 4-2 and its ground attack is nearly unstoppable at No.4 in the country. After losing three straight, California had perfect game plan and buried Washington State 37-3. Those betting football are calculating the Bears will not as hungry flipped them from -1.5 to +3. Arizona is 4-1 SU since 2008. Update – Arizona is a solid -3 and has seen growing support. Not thrilled about this contest will just lean with the visitor.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Arizona, now 80%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona
CFB – (401) USC at (402) NOTRE DAME 7:30 ET NBC *New*
In the most meaningful game of the day in college football, the total has exploded from 60 to 65. USC figures to be able to throw on so-so Notre Dame secondary and the only team that has slowed the Irish’s offense is Georgia’s outstanding crew and the Trojans do not play like that. I understand the last three meetings have been Over’s, but, both play enough defense for my money and the original release appears more accurate. Based on betting trends, some large bets were placed on Over.
Betting Trend – 91% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB – (413) FRESNO STATE at (414) SAN DIEGO STATE 10:30 ET CBSSN *New*
San Diego State played like they were on fall break and were whipped by Boise State. Football bettors are not convinced the Aztecs will be completely right mentally and dropped them four points to -7.5. Fresno State is enjoying big turnaround campaign under new coach Jeff Tedford. Definitely would have grabbled the Bulldogs at +10 or higher, but the best I can do here is a nod at this price even if Fresno State is on 12-4 ATS run.
Betting Trend – 72% backing San Diego State
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Fresno State
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (22-11-2 ATS) in order: SMU, Auburn, Colo. State, Arizona and Eastern Mich.
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (19-16 ATS) in order: Mary./Wisc. OVER, B.C./Virginia UNDER, Auburn/Ark. OVER, Oregon/UCLA OVER, and Iowa St. /Tex. Tech OVER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 226-229-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 146-114-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 360-310 -14 ATS