It is the last big college football Saturday and we have the newest line moves and of course those we talked about on Tuesday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here Saturday when we talk NFL.
CFB – (149) MICHIGAN STATE (150) RUTGERS 4:00 ET FOX
Though Rutgers has exceeded at least the oddsmakers expectations with 8-3 ATS mark, their offense has been problematic versus stronger units like Michigan State and the Scarlet Knights have risen from +11 to +13.5. Rutgers is only averaging 14.6 PPG in conference play and 56.4% of that came against Illinois and Maryland. The Spartans are 8-1 ATS when the total is 42 or lower. Update – Michigan State has basically held up at -13.5, with a few sportsbooks at -14. If Spartans defense is in usual form, they cover.
Betting Trend – Was 95% backing Michigan State, now 66%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Michigan State
CFB – (151) INDIANA at (152) PURDUE 12:00 ET ESPN2 *New*
The Old Oaken Bucket will be up for grabs in this battle, but what has caught the attention of football bettors is the total, up from 46.5 to 52. This would seem to imply Indiana will dictate the tempo of the game since Purdue is 9-2 UNDER this season. My two key models on this game have this Hoosier State contest at 48 or 49 points, thus, I’ll side with the UNDER.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB – (179) SOUTHERN MISS. at (180) MARSHALL 2:30 ET
In this C-USA clash, Marshall has been lowered two points to -3 against Southern Miss. Both teams have terrific in beating the number with a combined 15-7 ATS record. And the total of 48 does not favor either club being in the middle of their typical total scores. Let’s take the points with the Golden Eagles because of stronger offense. Update – No movement whatsoever on this contest and I will stick with original belief.
Betting Trend – Was 96% backing Southern Miss, now 83%
Doug’s VPID Take – Southern Miss covers
CFB – (183) WASHINGTON STATE at (184) WASHINGTON 8:00 ET FOX
The Apple Cup has huge implication for Washington State, who wins the Pac-12 North with a triumph. The Cougars opened at +11 to rival Washington and have slid to +9. Both teams have labored at times down the stretch and though the Huskies have the better talent, motivation is on the side of Wazzo and they cover this contest and maybe more. Update – Wise Guy money has pushed Washington back to -10 or -10.5. However, as you can see below the vast majority of bettors are on the underdog.
Betting Trend – Was 97% backing Washington State, now 70%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington State covers
CFB – (207) ARIZONA at (208) ARIZONA STATE 4:30 ET PAC-12N *New*
The oldest trophy in college football, the Territorial Cup (1899), will be fought for once again in the desert and the money is following Arizona, lifted from a Pick to -2 or -2.5, depending on the sportsbook. This has long been a rivalry that made little sense. The home team has covered four straight, yet priors to that they were 6-15 ATS. I’ll side with the Sun Devils, being ever so slightly better on defense and the Wildcat 5-14 ATS in road games in the second half of the season lately.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Arizona
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona State
CFB – (209) WEST VIRGINIA at (210) OKLAHOMA 3:45 ET ESPN
Oklahoma wants to continue momentum heading into Big 12 championship and secure their seat at the Final Four table. With West Virginia an average defensive team and having lost their starting quarterback Will Grier, it has been Boomer Sooner, with Oklahoma up from -19.5 to -22. Grab this now, as this number will only rise. Update – As predicted here the other day, Oklahoma has continues to rise and about 70% of books are -23, with the rest a half point lower. Sooners big!
Betting Trend – Was 62% backing Oklahoma, now 71%
Doug’s VPID Take – Oklahoma covers
CFB – (211) OREGON STATE at (212) OREGON 7:00 ET ESPN2
The Civil War is expected to be rather tame, as Oregon has been pushed up four points to -25.5. Oregon State’s 58-27 loss to pedestrian Colorado State in their opener set the table for a rotten season. The Beavers defense is being shredded for 40.6 PPG and the Ducks have never shown mercy on bad teams. Update – Just the slightest of buybacks to 25 point spread. The Ducks to fly past Beavers.
Betting Trend – Was 61% backing Oregon, now 51%
Doug’s VPID Take – Oregon covers
CFB – (225) ALABAMA at (226) AUBURN 3:30 ET CBS *New*
The Iron Bowl, and the stakes once again are ginormous. With both Alabama and Auburn in the Top 10 in scoring and total defense, the total has fallen from 50 to 47.5. What makes the adjustment somewhat fascinating is the Tigers are 7-0 OVER in SEC action this season. With the Crimson Tide presently a 4.5 point favorite and this new total, they would make Bama a 26-21 or 26-22 winner and that sounds about right.
Betting Trend – 91% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (36-21-3 ATS) in order: Temple, Penn State, Utah State, North Carolina and UConn
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (25-35 ATS) in order: Mich. St./Rutgers OVER, UNC/N.C. State OVER, Ariz./ASU OVER, Iowa St./K-State OVER and Tex. A&M/LSU OVER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 263-269-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 168-137-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 415-372 -14 ATS