For line moves in college football, we will not talk about games that had injures or those totals where the weather in the Midwest and East is causing them to go down. Instead we will cover three new games and have update from Tuesday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow for NFL.
CFB – Friday – (319) UNLV at (320) NEW MEXICO 9:30 ET ESPN2
All season, UNLV and New Mexico have been difficult teams to get a read on and this continues in this MWC matchup. Oddsmakers made the Lobos a two-point home favorite and they have been flipped to a one-point underdog against UNLV. In looking at technical, both have useful points, however, the Rebels get the call because of a better offense. Not sure this line will hold up however. Update – Was I ever correct on this one as by Tuesday night after doing video, New Mexico went back to favorites roll and have been at -2.5 since.
Betting Trend – Was 51% backing UNLV, now 23%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean UNLV
CFB – (329) PITTSBURGH at (330) VIRGINIA TECH 12:20 ET ACCN *New*
After being exposed as a fraud the last two games, Virginia Tech has crumbled like a cookie from -17 to -15. The supposedly tough Hokies defense has been whipped for 480 total yards rushing yards in those defeats and the freshman quarterback has not handled blitzes well. Look for Pittsburgh to rally from lousy loss to North Carolina and slide under the number and move to 7-2 ATS of late in this series.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Virginia Tech
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Pittsburgh
CFB – (333) N.C. STATE at (334) WAKE FOREST 7:30 ET ESPNU
N.C. State has a strong offense and at least three defensive starters who will be NFL draft picks, yet they do not have all the pieces that that shows up in three recent games where they were 1-2 and 0-1-2 ATS. They have themselves a real task at Wake Forest, whose offense is averaging 47.7 PPG in past three starts. Wake Forest is up from a Pick to -2. Update – We have a half point buyback to 1.5 and I know many sharp bettors that are on N.C. State. Myself, I like the hot squad in Demon Deacons.
Betting Trend – Was 54% backing N.C. State, now 65%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Wake Forest
CFB – (375) VIRGINIA at (376) MIAMI-FL 12:00 ET ABC
With how Miami is playing, not sure sportsbooks could have set an accurate spread that football bettors would not have bet up. This is what happened as the Hurricanes have blown from -17 to -19.5. This should be a flat spot for Miami, however, Virginia has allowed 36.5 PPG in last four contests and the Canes have too much speed for Cavaliers. Update – The Hurricanes have gone from a Category 4 to 2 as they have been blown back to -18.5. Maybe Miami blows out Virginia, but I will forecast a letdown situation and the Canes win by 17 or less.
Betting Trend – Was 51% backing Miami-FL, now 22%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Virginia
CFB – (379) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (380) ARKANSAS 12:00 ET CBS *New*
Given the choice between Mississippi State being utterly disappointed in losing a fourth quarter lead to No.1 Alabama or backing an Arkansas program that is likely to change head coach and miss a bowl appearance, those betting football have chose the former. The Bulldogs have been taken from -11.5 to -13. The Hogs are going through the motions and I think Mississippi State wakes up in the second quarter and take away the Razorbacks will and wins going away.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Mississippi State
Doug’s VPID Take – Mississippi State covers
CFB – (387) KANSAS STATE at (388) OKLAHOMA STATE 3:30 ET ESPN2 *New*
Count me as surprised that this Big 12 battle has seen Oklahoma State go from -21 to -19.5 against Kansas State. The Wildcats are expected to play third-string quarterback on the road and the Cowboys should have renewed enthusiasm with TCU missing four of their top starters at Texas Tech, which could put them back in the conference title game picture. K-State does have a 12-5 ATS mark against Okie State but they are 11-2 ATS at home after two straight games where 70 total points or more were scored.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Kansas State
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oklahoma State
CFB – (391) NEBRASKA at (392) PENN STATE 4:00 ET FS1
If a team as slow as Minnesota can score 52 points on Nebraska, what is Penn State capable of? Turns out the Nittany Lions were not as strong as expected, but that should not matter against the Cornhuskers, who have been pushed from +23 to +26.Penn State is 10-1 ATS at home after permitting 14 or fewer points. Update – About a third of the sportsbook have gone to -27 with the rest holding at -26. Do not feel as strongly as I did earlier in the week, but still prefer Nittany Lions.
Betting Trend – Was 98% backing Penn State, now 79%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Penn State
CFB – (393) LSU at (394) TENNESSEE 7:00 ET ESPN
The inevitable occurred, coach Butch Jones are fired and the search begins for the next Tennessee head man. Either way, that is not going to make life easier for this helpless Vols team and they have gone up two points to +16 home underdogs to LSU. The sense you get from watching Tennessee, they just want the season to end. Update – A modest buyback on Tennessee to +15.5, but just do not see what they have to play for.
Betting Trend – Was 96% backing LSU, now 88%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean LSU covers
CFB – (411) MARSHALL at (412) UTSA 7:00 ET
While a bit perplexing, maybe UTSA should have been favored to begin with when reviewing all the numbers and considering the total into this C-USA equation. The Roadrunners are now a -1 home favorite after being sent out at +1.5. Nonetheless, Marshall is 4-1 ATS on the road this season and UTSA is 0-4 ATS at home, which is hard to ignore. Update – Currently about a 50-50 split with UTSA still at -1 or a Pick. No problem Thundering Herd rumble!
Betting Trend – Was 90% backing Marshall, now 65%
Doug’s VPID Take – Marshall covers
CFB – (415) MICHIGAN at (416) WISCONSIN 12:00 ET FOX
Wisconsin fans feel their 10-0 team has been disrespected and it continues, as they have tumbled from -10 to -7.5 against Michigan in Madison. Maybe the Badgers will be really juiced for this contest, but this is first true opponent who can match them across the board on skill and speed, which leads me to taking the points. Update – A few 7’s have popped up, but mostly 7.5 has where the market is.
Betting Trend – Was 52% backing Michigan, now 60%
Doug’s VPID Take – Michigan covers
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (33-19-3 ATS) in order: California, Oklahoma, Missouri, Mississippi State and Utah
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (23-32 ATS) in order: Texas/W. Virg OVER, GT/Duke OVER, Miss. St./Ark. OVER, UCF/Temple OVER and Maryl./Mich. State OVER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 257-261-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 163-134-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 401-365 -14 ATS