Another college football weekend is upon us and we have the latest line moves that have occurred recently and updates from previous ones. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow for NFL.
CFB – (121) WASHINGTON at (202) STANFORD 10:30 ET FS1 *New*
The total on the Pac-12 encounter opened at 50, slid all the way to 44 with the news Stanford RB Bryce Love was a – Game Time Decision – early in the week, but it has gone back to 47 with Love now “probable”. In any case, Stanford is limited offensively unless Love goes on long runs, the Washington defense is No.2 nationally in scoring defense and the Huskies drop from 46.2 PPG at home to 29 PPG on the road. Little value at 47, yet would rather go low than high.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CFB – (125) MICHIGAN at (126) MARYLAND 3:30 ET BTN
The odds seem against Michigan for sure, yet with Penn State and Ohio State losing, they are not eliminated from still winning the Big Ten East, which adds ample motivation the rest of the season. Those betting football think the Wolverines will have their way against Maryland and moved them from -13.5 to -16. With the Terrapins down the depth chart at quarterback, Michigan should cover. Update – Meechigan has kept climbing and is at -17 and should be able to handle the lumber.
Betting Trend – Was 96% backing Michigan, now 86%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Michigan
CFB – (127) FLORIDA at (128) SOUTH CAROLINA 12:00 ET CBS *New*
Some might be shocked to see Florida falling as an underdog, given they have lost four in a row and been blown out in the past two by Georgia and Missouri. Nonetheless, the Gators have crawled from +7.5 to +5.5 because bettors are unsure about South Carolina’s offense and if they can really put Florida away. Besides, at some juncture Florida has to actually compete, right? I like the lower price and the Gators are 2-11 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games.
Betting Trend – 83% backing South Carolina
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean South Carolina
CFB – (137) WAKE FOREST at (138) SYRACUSE 3:00 ET ESPNEX *New*
This ACC total started at 59 and with the news Syracuse QB Eric Dungey was a ‘go’, the total shot up and is now at 66. Do not think for a second Dungey is worth a touchdown on a total, more like two points at best, however, my guess those betting football are reacting to how well Wake Forest moved the ball on Notre Dame last week and that Orange can also move the pigskin up and down the field, even if they don’t score as much as you might think.(96th in yards per points) I am inclined to think this will be too many points and will back the UNDER with the ‘Cuse 4-0 UNDER at home.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB – (143) MICHIGAN STATE at (144) OHIO STATE 12:00 ET FOX
Football bettors now have their doubts about Ohio State and the Buckeyes have been lowered two points to -15 against Michigan State. The Spartans have shown they can play defense, their quarterback has gotten hot throwing the ball and the Ohio State secondary is vulnerable without a pass rush. The Spartans are 12-3 ATS away versus teams average 200+ yards rushing. Update – Based on the betting trend, Ohio State back up to -17 suggests large investments on the Buckeyes the past few days. Did you realize that if Ohio State had lost to Penn State, they would be 6-4 SU in their past 10 games.
Betting Trend – Was 81% backing Michigan State, now 80%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Michigan State
CFB – (173) LAFAYETTE at (174) MISSISSIPPI 12:00 ET SECN
Mississippi might have lost their starting quarterback, but this has not slowed the passing offense one iota, with 750 passing yards in last two outings. This is why bettors have the faith to back the Rebels, who have charged from -17.5 to -19.5 against Lafayette. The numbers point to a Rebels romp and the Over might also be inviting play. Update – At present, sportsbooks are about split on Ole Miss at -19.5 or -20. As stated, the Rebels should roll!
Betting Trend – Was 80% backing Mississippi, now 42%
Doug’s VPID Take – Mississippi covers
CFB – (179) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (180) LOUISIANA TECH 3:30 ET
Florida Atlantic is in first place in C-USA East, has the No.7 rushing offense in the country and takes on a Louisiana Tech defense allowing 5.0 yards a carry. With this the Owls have flown from -4 to -6.5 point road favorites. Just keep in mind the Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS off an upset as a home favorite. Update – FAU going backwards to -4.5 is no surprise to this handicapper given Skip Holtz record as home underdog at Louisiana Tech or wherever he’s coached. The value has been cut, nevertheless, I will take a flyer on the Bulldogs as dogs.
Betting Trend – Was 77% backing Florida Atlantic, now 57%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Louisiana Tech
CFB – (187) GEORGIA at (188) AUBURN 3:30 ET CBS *New*
Talking to some of my friends who are professional bettors, collectively, they do not see more than one team in this SEC showdown reaching 20 points, if that. The thought is trading helmet paint for 60 minutes will be the order of the day and others feel the same with the total tumbling from 50 to 47. With Georgia 15-6 UNDER off one or more Under’s and Auburn 6-0 UNDER as a home underdog since 2015, hard to make case the other way.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB – (189) TENNESSEE at (190) MISSOURI 7:30 ET SECN
These SEC squads are fighting for bowl eligibility and currently it appears Missouri has the upper hand and they have climbed two points to -11 in tussle with Tennessee. Though the Tigers defense is meager, they have massive edge offensively, averaging 15.8 PPG more than Tennessee. Is that enough to trust Missouri, quite possibly. Update – By Thursday night the Mizzo Tigers were all the way up to -13 and have settled back to -12.5. Maybe Tennessee can cover, just not sure how.
Betting Trend – Was 53% backing Missouri, now 77%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Missouri
CFB – (201) UTEP at (202) NORTH TEXAS 5:00 ET ESPN3
North Texas is in great shape to win their first C-USA West title with only lowly UTEP and Rice remaining. The belief is the Mean Green will mangle the Miners at home this week and they have risen three points to -24. With UTEP 1-9 ATS on the road after six or more straight losses, North Texas covers if they choose. Update – The Mean Green has come back a bit to -22.5 and as I said the other day, if North Texas wants to bury the Miners, they will.
Betting Trend – Was 53% backing North Texas, now 91%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean North Texas
CFB – (217) BOISE STATE at (218) COLORADO STATE 10:30 ET CBSSN
Having lost two consecutive second half leads which resulted in defeat, Colorado State is 0-4 ATS the last month and is sinking like the temperatures in Fort Collins from +4 to +6.5 against Boise State. The Broncos have won five in row and seem to have found what they do best on both sides of the ball and are 6-0 ATS away after a no turnover contest. Update – Midweek there was action on Colorado State as they down to +4.5, but since they are back up to +6 and they will return to original starting point most certainly.
Betting Trend – Was 85% backing Boise State, now 83%
Doug’s VPID Take – Boise State covers
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (30-18-2 ATS) in order: Arizona State, Fresno State, LSU, Michigan and South Carolina
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (22-28 ATS) in order: Wash.State/Utah UNDER, Wyoming/AF UNDER, Neb./Minn. UNDER, Flor./So. Carol. UNDER and TCU/Okla.OVER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 254-257-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 156-126-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 393-351 -14 ATS