For line moves, one last look at the college football regular season, looking at a couple of fresh line adjustments and look back at those we talked about On Tuesday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here Saturday for NFL
CFB – Friday – (303) STANFORD vs. (304) USC 8:00 ET ESPN
In the Pac-12 championship, the interest level has to do with the total, which has been elevated from 57 to 58.5. The prior meeting had a total of 66 and that game’s closing total was 55. Though Stanford is a better team than they were in September, they still have speed issues on defense, which could lead to a higher than anticipated contest again. Update – At last peek, half the sportsbooks are still at 58.5 and the remainder have gone to 59. This does seem like a higher scoring affair.
Betting Trend – Was 70% backing Over, now 66%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CFB – (307) LOUISIANA at (308) APPALACHIAN STATE 2:30 ET ESPN3
Appalachian State can wrap up their portion of SBC title with a victory and those wagering are convinced this will happen with a higher score, moving total up two points to 59.5. Louisiana is 7-4 OVER and have gotten here strangely at 4-0, 0-4 and 3-0 OVER. The Mountaineers defense holds the key and we will say they slow Louisiana down. Update – The line move has hit the brakes and backed up to 58.5. I agree with the Appalachian State defense the difference.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Over, now 48%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CFB – (311) TROY at (312) ARKANSAS STATE 7:30 ET ESPN2 *New*
The Sun Belt gets some prime time love on Saturday night, but it will be going against several heavyweight games. However, in the SBC the stakes are the same in trying to decide a champion. These two programs have won 11 of the titles since the league began in 2001 and the winner is likely to share it with Appalachian State. Arkansas State opened as a two-point home favorite and has been flipped to +1 against Troy. The Trojans have the better defense and more team speed, but they have dropped four straight (0-4 ATS) to the Red Wolves. I will give the nod to Troy because of that defense.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Troy
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Troy
CFB – (317) MEMPHIS at (318) CENTRAL FLORIDA 12:00 ET ABC
Handicapping a total in the 80’s in college football is hard enough and when it goes from 81 to 84.5, not sure how you make sense of that figure. For this one, I will use the common opponents methodology and the sweet spot average for these two teams in 78 points, which will work for us in AAC title game. Update – Had a strong sense this total would come back down and it has, with 75 percent of books back to 81 and the rest at 81.5. Though an Over is certainly a possibility, I will stick with my number of 78 and bet UNDER.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Under, now 55%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CFB – (319) AKRON vs. (320) TOLEDO 12:00 ET ESPN (side and total)
Football bettors are calling for MAC championship blowout, with Toledo up three points to -21.5. Using this as platform, the average score of a Toledo game is just over 62 points and if they are dictating how the game is played, it makes sense the total should climb from 54 to 57.5. Let’s take Akron to cover big number and agree with higher score. Update – The total in this MAC clash has moved upward to 58.5 and I believe that has merit. Akron has gotten enough support to slide back to 21 and I think they will empty of the bucket and cover against Toledo.
Betting Trend – Was 88% backing Toledo and 90% on Over, now 81% and 92% respectively
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Akron and Over
CFB – (321) GEORGIA vs. (322) AUBURN 4:00 ET CBS *New Side*
Those betting football are convinced we will not sniff the 57 points we saw a month ago and lowered the total from 51 to 49. With Georgia having more of the crowd in their favor, this should be a more defensive game. Both teams will have some success moving the pigskin, but points could be difficult to manufacture. Update – This total has gone down a touch further to 48.5 and I am on board with these two fine defenses. The other development is Auburn down a digit from -2.5 to -1.5. I am sure the status and how well the Tigers Kerryon Johnson can play is impacting this line.
Betting Trend – Was 81% backing Under, now 75% and 58% on Auburn
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Under and Georgia
CFB – (325) MIAMI-FL vs. (326) CLEMSON 8:00 ET ABC *New Total*
It is a well known fact teams losing for first time late in the season struggle to find that magic the following week. Take this fact and add in Clemson’s pedigree and the Tigers have leapt from -7.5 to -9.5. That seems like a stretch and I expect number to come down. Being this big an underdog works to Miami’s advantage. Update – Near a 50-50 split on Clemson now at -9 or -9.5. Otherwise, the big news in this conflict is the total slipping from 48 to 46.5 or 46. This still seems like a lot points for Clemson and these offenses have too many big play players and defensive players that can alter scores quickly.
Betting Trend – Was 62% backing Clemson, now 68%, 70% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Miami and Play Over
CFB – (327) OHIO STATE at (328) WISCONSIN 8:00 ET FOX *New*
The Big Ten title tilt has a sinking total going on, down from 53.5 to 51. Both squads have exceptional defenses that wreak havoc, especially in their defensive lines. This has the feel of 24-20 outcome. In addition, when neutral field teams like Ohio State have the total between 49.5 and 56, having won three of their last four games, against opponent having won eight or more out of their last 10 games, the UNDER is 31-7.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB – (333) TCU vs. (334) OKLAHOMA 12:30 ET FOX
The first matchup reached 58 points with closing total of 64 in Norman. This time at Jerry’s World, the total opened at 61.5 and was lifted to 63.5. The three best offensive teams TCU has faced, they allowed an average of 35 PPG and just do not see how they slow Oklahoma down enough. Prefer the higher score. Update – Largely unchanged most of the week and the OVER works for me.
Betting Trend – Was 94% backing Over, now 60%
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (40-22-3 ATS) in order: FAU, New Mexico State and UMass
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (27-38 ATS) in order: Fresno St./Boise St. OVER, Akron/Toledo OVER and Troy/Ark. State OVER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 272-274-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 173-138-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 424-385 -14 ATS