Thin lineup today in MLB and the Game 4 of the NBA Finals is barely budging on the side and total, though Golden State has gone from -2.5 to -3 which will no doubt attract a fair amount of Cleveland money on that key number. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (15-10 L6D)
MLB – (903) COLORADO at (904) MIAMI 7:10 ET ROOT-RM, FSN-FL
Hmm, Chris Rusin (2-0, 1.45 ERA) vs. David Phelps (2-3, 4.68), not exactly Kershaw vs. Bumgarner for a pitching matchup. While the South Beach bars will be packed as usual tonight, it will not be to see a game between the Rockies and the Marlins. Yet there has been more than enough interest from those assembling sports picks to alter the sportsbooks total of 8 to 9. After reaching that point there was blow back and the number has been reset at 8.5. Rusin has gotten off to a good start but the Cubs are not exactly blessed with pitching and traded him to Colorado. Phelps is a handyman and not a consistent starter and it is showing with his 0-3 record with an 8.27 ERA in his last four starts. With the Rocks 12-4 OVER after a loss by two runs or less this season and the Fish 27-15 OVER since last year facing lefties, we will ride the tide.
Bettors Choice – 68% on OVER (at press time) – Doug’s Choice – Play Over
MLB – (915) BOSTON at (916) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET NESN, MASN
The Orioles Chris Tillman (3-7, 5.61) ended a seven-start winless streak last Friday’s at Cleveland, but the Baltimore ace is having his worst season since 2010 when his ERA was 5.87 in as many starts as this year. Though Wade Miley (5-5, 4.67) has been better in his last five outings with a 4-1 record and 2.73 ERA, there is an error of uncertainty about both AL East hurlers for MLB picks and the total has morphed from 8 to 8.5. The total going higher is not a foregone conclusion as in each team’s last seven trips to the ballpark; Boston has average 3.4 RPG and Baltimore 3.3 RPG. Also consider Miley is 19-4 UNDER as an underdog of +100 or higher since last year and the Birds are 10-1 UNDER after consecutive wins since last season.
Bettors Choice – 83% on OVER – Doug’s Choice – Lean Under
MLB – (917) L.A.A. ANGELS at (918) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET FSN-W, SUN
Garrett Richards (5-4, 4.14) is off the worst start of career, not making it out of the first inning at Yankee Stadium in allowing six runs. With the Angels 1-6 and Tampa Bay 8-3 in their last 11, the team from Anaheim has fallen from -130 road favorites to -115 or less. Alex Colome (3-2, 4.54) will be the Rays starter, but with the total at seven this sets up to be a lower scoring contest and Tampa Bay is 2-11 at home when the total is 7 or less this season. The Halos are hardly rock solid but they are 30-17 in road games after scoring two runs or less since 2013.
Bettors Choice – 69% on Los Angeles Doug’s Choice – Lean Angels
Vegas Pro Insiders Daily Top Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Manager Jeff Banister and Texas is is 7-0 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better.
MLB Totals Trend
Manager Walt Weiss and Colorado are 56-27 UNDER in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.
MLB Run Line Trend
Bryan Price and Cincinnati are 28-11 after five or more consecutive home games.
NBA ATS Trend
Golden State is 10-0 ATS after two straight games in which they were called for 25 or more fouls the last two seasons.