Vegas Pro Insiders Daily Line Moves and Top Trends for Thursday


No NBA today and nearly half the baseball schedule is in the afternoon, but this has not stopped the betting lines from moving and we have four games of note to cover. By the way, I am seeing in the NHL the Montreal and Tampa Bay game, sportsbooks are anywhere from -150 to -160 on the Under 5. What kind odds are those? I guess the books REALLY don’t want to go to 4.5 for the total in Game 4! Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (523-464 L187D)

Special Notice – This Saturday, May 9th we’re excited to host an MLB $3 entry contest with the 1st place prize being a trip for two (2) to this year’s MLB All Star Game!  This includes airfare ($1,000 credit), hotel accommodations, two (2) tickets to the Home Run Derby and two (2) tickets to the MLB All-Star Game (please note that the winner and participants must be 21 years of age or older.)

MLB – (955) CINCINNATI at (956) PITTSBURGH  7:05 ET  FSN-0H, ROOT-P Pittsburgh has lost five in a row and seven of eight yet are drawing strong support from those making MLB picks. The Pirates have risen from -135 to -150 and not because of their anemic offense which is averaging 3.5 RPG. No, it is baseball bettors have faith in A.J. Burnett (0-1, 1.45 ERA), who could easily be 4-1 or 5-0 with any run support and he is the first pitcher to go winless through five starts with a 1.45 ERA or lower since the Cubs Ryan Dempster was 0-1 with a 1.02 ERA in 2012. No doubt it would take some courage to back the Bucs at this price against Cincinnati with a 0-5 record against them, but consider teams with a money line of -100 to -150, with a starting pitcher who is winless after five or more starts, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games, are 75-27 the last 18 years. Doug’s Choice – Lean Pittsburgh

MLB – (967) BALTIMORE at (968) N.Y. YANKEES  7:05 ET  MASN, YES Baltimore is not enjoying their time in the Big Apple having already lost to the Mets twice this week and opens up a four-game series with the first place Yankees tonight. The Orioles have not reached five runs since leaving the crab cakes and other events behind and those reviewing the betting odds do not like the chances for success, taking the sportsbooks opening number of +105 and adjusting it to +120 for the Birds. The O’s ace Chris Tillman is only 5-5 (4.96 ERA) versus New York, however, make Tillman an underdog and he and Orioles are 17-8 priced at +100 to +150 the last two seasons. Doug’sChoice – Lean Baltimore

MLB – (971) HOUSTON at (972) L.A.A. ANGELS  10:05 ET  ROOT-SW,  FSN-W Collin McHugh (4-0, 3.41) of Houston is 11-0 in 15 outings since a July 27 defeat to Miami and the Astros have won his last 10 starts in a row. He would be a good candidate to shutdown an Angels’ offense which is 14th in the AL in batting average (.226) and on-base percentage (.287). However, the Houston express was just derailed in being swept at home by Texas, scoring a grand total of five runs. With the Halos Hector Santiago (2-2, 3.14) throwing fairly well this season, the total has dipped from 8 to 7.5. With Santiago 12-3 UNDER at home playing against a team with a winning record  and the Stros 20-4 UNDER of a division beatdown by six or more runs the last three years, I will run with the crowd. Doug’s Choice – Play Under

NHL – (3) CHICAGO at (4) MINNESOTA   9:35 ET  NBCSN Chicago BlackhawksComing into this series, Minnesota was given a real shot to knock off the Blackhawks, but that has turned out to be as true of Chip Kelly trading up to get QB Marcus Mariota. Chicago has limited the Wild to only four goals in building a 3-0 lead and one in the previous two contests which has lead to the juice rising on the total of 5 from -115 to -125. Hard to argue with the NHL odds here with the Blackhawks 8-2 UNDER this season having won three straight. Doug’s Choice Play Under

Vegas Pro Insiders Daily Trends

MLB Money Line Trend

Houston is 15-3 vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game this season.

MLB Totals Trend

Miami is 17-6 OVER in road games vs. teams averaging 0.75 or less home runs a game the last two seasons.

NHL Money Line Trend

Tampa Bay is 14-0 at home vs. opponents who allow 29.5 or more shots on goal in the second half of the season this year.


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