Vegas Pro Insiders Daily Line Moves and Top Trends for Monday

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This is a forerunner as to what lies ahead once the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals are completed with baseball only unless you have a soccer preference. Today the Cardinals have fallen close to 20 cents with Matt Holiday in question and Milwaukee announcing their starting pitcher. Even Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are off almost 30 cents, with Colorado on a four-game win streak. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (550-498 L203D)

MLB – (901) CHIC. CUBS at (902) MIAMI 7:10 ET  CSN-C, FSFL

The expected game time temperature today in Miami is 87, which is 40 degrees warmer than it was at Wrigley Field yesterday for the Cubs. While Chicago will be in much more comfortable conditions, those making MLB picks are less sure the Cubs can beat the Marlins and dropped them 15 cents to -125. Chicago had dropped 7 of 11 prior to winning yesterday against Kansas City and has Jason Hammel (3-2, 2.98 ERA) is working on seven days rest and he’s completed seven or more innings in five of his last six starts. Miami has played a little better at .500 in last eight games, but after losing to the Mets yesterday is 3-10 at home after a loss this season. Doug’s Choice Chicago wins

MLB – (907) ATLANTA at (908) ARIZONA  9:40 ET  SPSO, FSAZ

Atlanta hits the desert having scored 15 runs against Lincecum, Bumgarner and the usually reliable San Francisco bullpen and will take on Arizona’s Archie Bradley (2-2, 5.28), who has a 11.81 ERA since being hit in the puss. With these two factors and Paul Goldschmidt on fire, the total has been lifted from 8 to 9. Braves starter Alex Wood (3-2, 3.50) has limited the D-Backs to a .172 BA. Those constructing sports picks are not thinking Wood will have that kind of success, as home teams when the total is 8.5 to 10, scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a good NL starter (ERA of 3.70 or lower), with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50, are 36-14 OVER since 2011. Doug’s Choice – Lean Over

MLB – (917) TAMPA BAY at (918) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET  CSN-C, ROOT-SW

Garrett Richards (4-3, 3.12) and June have gotten along well with him posting a 6-2 record and 2.64 ERA in 10 starts and eight relief appearances. Yet there is still hesitancy and the Angels along with their right-hander have sunk from -165 to close to -150 at many sportsbooks. That is a little shocking since the Halos just swept four games from Detroit at the Big A and Tampa Bay’s Alex Colome (3-1, 4.55) on the surface is nothing special. However, Colome has been a tough hombre on the road at 4-0 with a 1.78 ERA in six career road starts. Plus, coming off their offensive outburst in Baltimore, the Rays are 17-5 after a game where they had six or more extra base hits the last three seasons. Even with this still prefer L.A. at home. Doug’s Choice – L.A.A. wins

MLB – (919) N.Y. YANKEES at (920) SEATTLE  10:10 ET  YES, ROOT-NW

Seattle MarinersMichael Pineda (6-2, 3.36) faces the team which traded him away for the first time but his mound opponent will be none other than the King, Felix Hernandez (8-1, 1.91). Though the Yankees lost a four-game series to lowly Oakland, the Mariners were no better in doing the same at home to Cleveland. The betting odds on the New York are down 15 cents to +135 despite King Felix allowing just six runs in his past five starts versus the Yanks (Mariners 3-2). If Pineda can keep his emotions in check, he could hold down Seattle’s chances of scoring, nonetheless, Hernandez is 15-4 when the money line is -100 to -150 the last two seasons.(Mariners record) Yet here’s an oddity, Hernandez and the M’s are only 42-53 when he pitches and they are off two or more losses. Doug’s Choice – Lean Seattle

 

Vegas Pro Insiders Daily Trends

MLB Money Line Trend

Clay Buchholz and Boston are 3-15 in home games the last two seasons.

MLB Totals Trend

Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers is 15-4 UNDER after giving up no earned runs last outing the last three seasons.

MLB Run Line Trend

Ubaldo Jimenez of Baltimore is 18-38 if his team is off two or more consecutive losses in his career.

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